Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers
The prediction of summers with notable droughts and heatwaves on the seasonal scale is challenging, especially in extratropical regions, since their development is not yet fully understood. Thus, monitoring and analysis of such summers are important tasks to close this knowledge gap. In a previous p...
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fthindawi:oai:hindawi.com:10.1155/2014/427916 2023-05-15T15:09:00+02:00 Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers Christine Träger-Chatterjee Richard W. Müller Jörg Bendix 2014 https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/427916 en eng Advances in Meteorology https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/427916 Copyright © 2014 Christine Träger-Chatterjee et al. Research Article 2014 fthindawi https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/427916 2019-05-26T01:37:21Z The prediction of summers with notable droughts and heatwaves on the seasonal scale is challenging, especially in extratropical regions, since their development is not yet fully understood. Thus, monitoring and analysis of such summers are important tasks to close this knowledge gap. In a previous paper, the authors presented hints that extreme summers are connected with specific conditions during the winter-spring transition season. Here, these findings are further discussed and analysed in the context of the Earth’s circulation systems. No evidence for a connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Arctic Oscillation during the winter-spring transition and extremely hot and dry summers is found. However, inspection of the geopotential at 850 hPa shows that a Greenland-North Sea-Dipole is connected with extreme summers in Central Europe. This motivated the introduction of the novel Greenland-North Sea-Dipole-Index, GNDI. However, using this index as predictor would lead to one false alarm and one missed event in the time series analysed (1958–2011). Hints are found that the disturbance of the “dipole-summer” connection is due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To consider the ENSO effect, the novel Central European Drought Index (CEDI) has been developed, which is composed of the GNDI and the Bivariate ENSO Time Series Index. The CEDI enables a correct indication of all extremely hot and dry summers between 1958 and 2011 without any false alarm. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Hindawi Publishing Corporation Arctic Greenland Advances in Meteorology 2014 1 11 |
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Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
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The prediction of summers with notable droughts and heatwaves on the seasonal scale is challenging, especially in extratropical regions, since their development is not yet fully understood. Thus, monitoring and analysis of such summers are important tasks to close this knowledge gap. In a previous paper, the authors presented hints that extreme summers are connected with specific conditions during the winter-spring transition season. Here, these findings are further discussed and analysed in the context of the Earth’s circulation systems. No evidence for a connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Arctic Oscillation during the winter-spring transition and extremely hot and dry summers is found. However, inspection of the geopotential at 850 hPa shows that a Greenland-North Sea-Dipole is connected with extreme summers in Central Europe. This motivated the introduction of the novel Greenland-North Sea-Dipole-Index, GNDI. However, using this index as predictor would lead to one false alarm and one missed event in the time series analysed (1958–2011). Hints are found that the disturbance of the “dipole-summer” connection is due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To consider the ENSO effect, the novel Central European Drought Index (CEDI) has been developed, which is composed of the GNDI and the Bivariate ENSO Time Series Index. The CEDI enables a correct indication of all extremely hot and dry summers between 1958 and 2011 without any false alarm. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christine Träger-Chatterjee Richard W. Müller Jörg Bendix |
spellingShingle |
Christine Träger-Chatterjee Richard W. Müller Jörg Bendix Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers |
author_facet |
Christine Träger-Chatterjee Richard W. Müller Jörg Bendix |
author_sort |
Christine Träger-Chatterjee |
title |
Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers |
title_short |
Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers |
title_full |
Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers |
title_fullStr |
Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers |
title_sort |
analysis and discussion of atmospheric precursor of european heat summers |
publisher |
Advances in Meteorology |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/427916 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/427916 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2014 Christine Träger-Chatterjee et al. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/427916 |
container_title |
Advances in Meteorology |
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2014 |
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1 |
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11 |
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1766340251630960640 |