Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model
We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find tha...
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fthindawi:oai:hindawi.com:10.1155/2010/915303 2023-05-15T17:33:11+02:00 Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model Michael F. Wehner G. Bala Phillip Duffy Arthur A. Mirin Raquel Romano 2010 https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303 en eng Advances in Meteorology https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303 Copyright © 2010 Michael F. Wehner et al. Research Article 2010 fthindawi https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303 2019-05-26T05:00:02Z We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Hindawi Publishing Corporation Advances in Meteorology 2010 1 13 |
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Open Polar |
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Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
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fthindawi |
language |
English |
description |
We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Michael F. Wehner G. Bala Phillip Duffy Arthur A. Mirin Raquel Romano |
spellingShingle |
Michael F. Wehner G. Bala Phillip Duffy Arthur A. Mirin Raquel Romano Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model |
author_facet |
Michael F. Wehner G. Bala Phillip Duffy Arthur A. Mirin Raquel Romano |
author_sort |
Michael F. Wehner |
title |
Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model |
title_short |
Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model |
title_full |
Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model |
title_fullStr |
Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model |
title_sort |
towards direct simulation of future tropical cyclone statistics in a high-resolution global atmospheric model |
publisher |
Advances in Meteorology |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2010 Michael F. Wehner et al. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303 |
container_title |
Advances in Meteorology |
container_volume |
2010 |
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1 |
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13 |
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1766131612316073984 |