Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic
<qd> Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., Sarmiento, J. L., and Pauly, D. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr012. </qd>Previous g...
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fthighwire:oai:open-archive.highwire.org:icesjms:fsr012v1 2023-05-15T17:41:11+02:00 Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic Cheung, William W. L. Dunne, John Sarmiento, Jorge L. Pauly, Daniel 2011-04-13 23:58:12.0 text/html http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/fsr012v1 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr012 en eng Oxford University Press http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/fsr012v1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr012 Copyright (C) 2011, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries TEXT 2011 fthighwire https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr012 2013-05-26T22:47:05Z <qd> Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., Sarmiento, J. L., and Pauly, D. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr012. </qd>Previous global analyses projected shifts in species distributions and maximum fisheries catch potential across ocean basins by 2050 under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B. However, these studies did not account for the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton community structure that affect fish and invertebrate distribution and productivity. This paper uses a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model that incorporates these factors to project distribution and maximum catch potential of 120 species of exploited demersal fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic. Using projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (ESM2.1) under the SRES A1B, we project an average rate of distribution-centroid shift of 52 km decade−1 northwards and 5.1 m decade−1 deeper from 2005 to 2050. Ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content reduce growth performance, increase the rate of range shift, and lower the estimated catch potentials (10-year average of 2050 relative to 2005) by 20–30% relative to simulations without considering these factors. Consideration of phytoplankton community structure may further reduce projected catch potentials by ∼10%. These results highlight the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeochemical changes and the need to incorporate likely hypotheses of their biological and ecological effects in assessing climate change impacts. Text Northeast Atlantic Ocean acidification HighWire Press (Stanford University) Sarmiento ENVELOPE(-68.000,-68.000,-72.000,-72.000) ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 6 1008 1018 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HighWire Press (Stanford University) |
op_collection_id |
fthighwire |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries |
spellingShingle |
Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries Cheung, William W. L. Dunne, John Sarmiento, Jorge L. Pauly, Daniel Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries |
description |
<qd> Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., Sarmiento, J. L., and Pauly, D. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr012. </qd>Previous global analyses projected shifts in species distributions and maximum fisheries catch potential across ocean basins by 2050 under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B. However, these studies did not account for the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton community structure that affect fish and invertebrate distribution and productivity. This paper uses a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model that incorporates these factors to project distribution and maximum catch potential of 120 species of exploited demersal fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic. Using projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (ESM2.1) under the SRES A1B, we project an average rate of distribution-centroid shift of 52 km decade−1 northwards and 5.1 m decade−1 deeper from 2005 to 2050. Ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content reduce growth performance, increase the rate of range shift, and lower the estimated catch potentials (10-year average of 2050 relative to 2005) by 20–30% relative to simulations without considering these factors. Consideration of phytoplankton community structure may further reduce projected catch potentials by ∼10%. These results highlight the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeochemical changes and the need to incorporate likely hypotheses of their biological and ecological effects in assessing climate change impacts. |
format |
Text |
author |
Cheung, William W. L. Dunne, John Sarmiento, Jorge L. Pauly, Daniel |
author_facet |
Cheung, William W. L. Dunne, John Sarmiento, Jorge L. Pauly, Daniel |
author_sort |
Cheung, William W. L. |
title |
Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_short |
Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full |
Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_sort |
integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the northeast atlantic |
publisher |
Oxford University Press |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/fsr012v1 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr012 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-68.000,-68.000,-72.000,-72.000) |
geographic |
Sarmiento |
geographic_facet |
Sarmiento |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/fsr012v1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr012 |
op_rights |
Copyright (C) 2011, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr012 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
68 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1008 |
op_container_end_page |
1018 |
_version_ |
1766142550470557696 |