Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank
<qd> Gröger, J. P., and Fogarty, M. J. 2011. Broad-scale climate influences on cod ( Gadus morhua ) recruitment on Georges Bank. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . </qd>Climatic influences on Georges Bank cod recruitment were investigated using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) a...
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fthighwire:oai:open-archive.highwire.org:icesjms:68/3/592 2023-05-15T16:19:02+02:00 Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. 2011-03-01 00:00:00.0 text/html http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/68/3/592 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 en eng Oxford University Press http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/68/3/592 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 Copyright (C) 2011, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer Articles TEXT 2011 fthighwire https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 2011-03-13T13:37:15Z <qd> Gröger, J. P., and Fogarty, M. J. 2011. Broad-scale climate influences on cod ( Gadus morhua ) recruitment on Georges Bank. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . </qd>Climatic influences on Georges Bank cod recruitment were investigated using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as an index of atmospheric variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an index of sea surface temperature. A quantitative approach based on a simple Cushing-type stock–recruitment model was developed and extended to include climate influences using the technique of generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX modelling). This allowed the autoregressive nature of the interacting exogenous and endogenous processes to be taken into account. Based on two information criteria, the resulting best transfer function contains winter NAO with a lag of 3 years, annual AMO with a lag of 1 year (both as exogenous climate factors), log e (spawning-stock biomass) as a structural model component, plus two autoregressive parameters. The model is characterized by the smallest information criteria, 92% of explained recruitment variation (vs. 55% from the simple Cushing-type model), excellent forecasting behaviour, and all model assumptions being fulfilled. It is proposed that the model's recruitment hindcasts ( ex post forecasts) and forecasts be incorporated into stock and risk assessments as well as management strategy evaluations, either as a climate-induced recruitment index for projections or as real forecasts to establish sustainable cod fisheries on Georges Bank conditioned by climate as a forcing factor. Text Gadus morhua North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation HighWire Press (Stanford University) ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 3 592 602 |
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Articles Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
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<qd> Gröger, J. P., and Fogarty, M. J. 2011. Broad-scale climate influences on cod ( Gadus morhua ) recruitment on Georges Bank. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . </qd>Climatic influences on Georges Bank cod recruitment were investigated using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as an index of atmospheric variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an index of sea surface temperature. A quantitative approach based on a simple Cushing-type stock–recruitment model was developed and extended to include climate influences using the technique of generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX modelling). This allowed the autoregressive nature of the interacting exogenous and endogenous processes to be taken into account. Based on two information criteria, the resulting best transfer function contains winter NAO with a lag of 3 years, annual AMO with a lag of 1 year (both as exogenous climate factors), log e (spawning-stock biomass) as a structural model component, plus two autoregressive parameters. The model is characterized by the smallest information criteria, 92% of explained recruitment variation (vs. 55% from the simple Cushing-type model), excellent forecasting behaviour, and all model assumptions being fulfilled. It is proposed that the model's recruitment hindcasts ( ex post forecasts) and forecasts be incorporated into stock and risk assessments as well as management strategy evaluations, either as a climate-induced recruitment index for projections or as real forecasts to establish sustainable cod fisheries on Georges Bank conditioned by climate as a forcing factor. |
format |
Text |
author |
Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. |
author_facet |
Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. |
author_sort |
Gröger, Joachim P. |
title |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_short |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_full |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_fullStr |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_full_unstemmed |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_sort |
broad-scale climate influences on cod (gadus morhua) recruitment on georges bank |
publisher |
Oxford University Press |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/68/3/592 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 |
genre |
Gadus morhua North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Gadus morhua North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/68/3/592 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 |
op_rights |
Copyright (C) 2011, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
68 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
592 |
op_container_end_page |
602 |
_version_ |
1766005349379211264 |