Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod
<qd> Mantzouni, I., Sørensen, H., O'Hara, R. B., and MacKenzie, B. R. 2010. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 833–855. </qd>Understanding how temperature affects cod ( Ga...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Oxford University Press
2010
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/67/5/833 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 |
id |
fthighwire:oai:open-archive.highwire.org:icesjms:67/5/833 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fthighwire:oai:open-archive.highwire.org:icesjms:67/5/833 2023-05-15T15:27:16+02:00 Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. 2010-07-01 00:00:00.0 text/html http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/67/5/833 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 en eng Oxford University Press http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/67/5/833 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 Copyright (C) 2010, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer Articles TEXT 2010 fthighwire https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 2010-08-22T20:02:32Z <qd> Mantzouni, I., Sørensen, H., O'Hara, R. B., and MacKenzie, B. R. 2010. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 833–855. </qd>Understanding how temperature affects cod ( Gadus morhua ) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. Text atlantic cod Gadus morhua North Atlantic HighWire Press (Stanford University) ICES Journal of Marine Science 67 5 833 855 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HighWire Press (Stanford University) |
op_collection_id |
fthighwire |
language |
English |
topic |
Articles |
spellingShingle |
Articles Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
topic_facet |
Articles |
description |
<qd> Mantzouni, I., Sørensen, H., O'Hara, R. B., and MacKenzie, B. R. 2010. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 833–855. </qd>Understanding how temperature affects cod ( Gadus morhua ) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. |
format |
Text |
author |
Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. |
author_facet |
Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. |
author_sort |
Mantzouni, Irene |
title |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_short |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_full |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_fullStr |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_sort |
hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of north atlantic cod |
publisher |
Oxford University Press |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/67/5/833 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/67/5/833 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 |
op_rights |
Copyright (C) 2010, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
67 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
833 |
op_container_end_page |
855 |
_version_ |
1766357717765586944 |