A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change
<qd> Hollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. </qd>...
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fthighwire:oai:open-archive.highwire.org:icesjms:66/7/1584 2023-05-15T15:43:37+02:00 A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change Hollowed, Anne Babcock Bond, Nicholas A. Wilderbuer, Thomas K. Stockhausen, William T. A'mar, Z. Teresa Beamish, Richard J. Overland, James E. Schirripa, Michael J. 2009-08-01 00:00:00.0 text/html http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/66/7/1584 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp057 en eng Oxford University Press http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/66/7/1584 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp057 Copyright (C) 2009, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer Articles TEXT 2009 fthighwire https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp057 2009-11-22T20:52:34Z <qd> Hollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. </qd>A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (i) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ii) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (iii) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (iv) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (v) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2°C by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole ( Lepidopsetta polyxystra ) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole. Text Bering Sea HighWire Press (Stanford University) Bering Sea ICES Journal of Marine Science 66 7 1584 1594 |
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Articles Hollowed, Anne Babcock Bond, Nicholas A. Wilderbuer, Thomas K. Stockhausen, William T. A'mar, Z. Teresa Beamish, Richard J. Overland, James E. Schirripa, Michael J. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change |
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<qd> Hollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. </qd>A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (i) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ii) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (iii) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (iv) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (v) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2°C by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole ( Lepidopsetta polyxystra ) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole. |
format |
Text |
author |
Hollowed, Anne Babcock Bond, Nicholas A. Wilderbuer, Thomas K. Stockhausen, William T. A'mar, Z. Teresa Beamish, Richard J. Overland, James E. Schirripa, Michael J. |
author_facet |
Hollowed, Anne Babcock Bond, Nicholas A. Wilderbuer, Thomas K. Stockhausen, William T. A'mar, Z. Teresa Beamish, Richard J. Overland, James E. Schirripa, Michael J. |
author_sort |
Hollowed, Anne Babcock |
title |
A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change |
title_short |
A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change |
title_full |
A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change |
title_fullStr |
A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change |
title_sort |
framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change |
publisher |
Oxford University Press |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/66/7/1584 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp057 |
geographic |
Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea |
genre |
Bering Sea |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea |
op_relation |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/66/7/1584 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp057 |
op_rights |
Copyright (C) 2009, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp057 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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66 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1584 |
op_container_end_page |
1594 |
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1766377802789027840 |