A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller)
Management of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller), is based on the precautionary approach, and probabilistic short-term predictions are used directly as a tool. One important part of the overall uncertainty is the uncertainty in the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate made in September. Harve...
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2002
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fthighwire:oai:open-archive.highwire.org:icesjms:59/5/1072 2023-05-15T15:38:40+02:00 A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller) Tjelmeland, Sigurd 2002-01-01 00:00:00.0 text/html http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/59/5/1072 https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1258 en eng Oxford University Press http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/59/5/1072 http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1258 Copyright (C) 2002, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer Regular Articles TEXT 2002 fthighwire https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1258 2013-05-27T03:28:43Z Management of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller), is based on the precautionary approach, and probabilistic short-term predictions are used directly as a tool. One important part of the overall uncertainty is the uncertainty in the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate made in September. Harvest-control rules are based on historical time-series for the spawning stock, the uncertainty around which therefore has a direct bearing on management of the species. Accordingly, one must quantify the uncertainty, not only of the September estimate the latest year, but also for the whole time-series. In this paper, a model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate is developed. The uncertainty in the mean integrator value by standard one-by-two-degree rectangles is evaluated with a model for the distribution of the basic five-mile integrator values parameterized with data from many historical surveys. The uncertainty from the biological samples is quantified on the basis of the multinomial distribution. A large number of replicates of the historical time-series of September estimates are produced and stored on file for later use. Text Barents Sea HighWire Press (Stanford University) Barents Sea ICES Journal of Marine Science 59 5 1072 1080 |
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Open Polar |
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HighWire Press (Stanford University) |
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fthighwire |
language |
English |
topic |
Regular Articles |
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Regular Articles Tjelmeland, Sigurd A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller) |
topic_facet |
Regular Articles |
description |
Management of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller), is based on the precautionary approach, and probabilistic short-term predictions are used directly as a tool. One important part of the overall uncertainty is the uncertainty in the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate made in September. Harvest-control rules are based on historical time-series for the spawning stock, the uncertainty around which therefore has a direct bearing on management of the species. Accordingly, one must quantify the uncertainty, not only of the September estimate the latest year, but also for the whole time-series. In this paper, a model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate is developed. The uncertainty in the mean integrator value by standard one-by-two-degree rectangles is evaluated with a model for the distribution of the basic five-mile integrator values parameterized with data from many historical surveys. The uncertainty from the biological samples is quantified on the basis of the multinomial distribution. A large number of replicates of the historical time-series of September estimates are produced and stored on file for later use. |
format |
Text |
author |
Tjelmeland, Sigurd |
author_facet |
Tjelmeland, Sigurd |
author_sort |
Tjelmeland, Sigurd |
title |
A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller) |
title_short |
A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller) |
title_full |
A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller) |
title_fullStr |
A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller) |
title_full_unstemmed |
A model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Muller) |
title_sort |
model for the uncertainty around the yearly trawl-acoustic estimate of biomass of barents sea capelin, mallotus villosus (muller) |
publisher |
Oxford University Press |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/59/5/1072 https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1258 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea |
op_relation |
http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/59/5/1072 http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1258 |
op_rights |
Copyright (C) 2002, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2002.1258 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
59 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1072 |
op_container_end_page |
1080 |
_version_ |
1766369900764332032 |