ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system
We present an assessment of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system based on the earth system model MPI-ESM. The system is initialised from re-analysis in the atmospheric, oceanic and sea-ice component of the model. We use a hindcast...
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fthenry:oai:henry.baw.de:20.500.11970/104466 2023-08-27T04:11:55+02:00 ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system Todt, M. Bunzel, F. Dobrynn, M. Fröhlich, K. Müller, Wolfgang Baehr, Johanna Deutsche Meteorologische Gesellschaft KlimaCampus Hamburg 2015 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/104466 eng eng 10. Deutsche Klimatagung, 21. bis 24. September 2015, Hamburg Todt, M.; Bunzel, F.; Dobrynn, M.; Fröhlich, K.; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna (2015): ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system. Poster präsentiert bei: 10. Deutsche Klimatagung, 21. bis 24. September 2015, Hamburg. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/104466 Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Ingenieurwissenschaften (620) Klimawandel Conference Poster image Published Version 2015 fthenry https://doi.org/20.500.11970/104466 2023-08-06T23:05:27Z We present an assessment of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system based on the earth system model MPI-ESM. The system is initialised from re-analysis in the atmospheric, oceanic and sea-ice component of the model. We use a hindcast ensemble with semi-annual start dates between 1981 and 2014 (10 member ensembles started every May and November for 6 months each). We find hindcast skill for Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures up to 6 months ahead. Hindcast skill is higher for November start dates than for May start dates. In addition to the Niño 3.4 Index, we also assess hindcast skill for Niño3, the West Pacific Warm Water Volume and the zonal wind variability. In particular we focus on the difference in the hindcast skill in the May start dates for the 1997/98 and the 2014 November conditions - though for these two periods overall similar conditions were observed, the subsequent development with a strong El Niño in 1997/98 and a very weak El Niño in 2014 differed considerably. Still Image Sea ice Henry - Hydraulic Engineering Repository Pacific |
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Open Polar |
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Henry - Hydraulic Engineering Repository |
op_collection_id |
fthenry |
language |
English |
topic |
Ingenieurwissenschaften (620) Klimawandel |
spellingShingle |
Ingenieurwissenschaften (620) Klimawandel Todt, M. Bunzel, F. Dobrynn, M. Fröhlich, K. Müller, Wolfgang Baehr, Johanna ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system |
topic_facet |
Ingenieurwissenschaften (620) Klimawandel |
description |
We present an assessment of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system based on the earth system model MPI-ESM. The system is initialised from re-analysis in the atmospheric, oceanic and sea-ice component of the model. We use a hindcast ensemble with semi-annual start dates between 1981 and 2014 (10 member ensembles started every May and November for 6 months each). We find hindcast skill for Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures up to 6 months ahead. Hindcast skill is higher for November start dates than for May start dates. In addition to the Niño 3.4 Index, we also assess hindcast skill for Niño3, the West Pacific Warm Water Volume and the zonal wind variability. In particular we focus on the difference in the hindcast skill in the May start dates for the 1997/98 and the 2014 November conditions - though for these two periods overall similar conditions were observed, the subsequent development with a strong El Niño in 1997/98 and a very weak El Niño in 2014 differed considerably. |
author2 |
Deutsche Meteorologische Gesellschaft KlimaCampus Hamburg |
format |
Still Image |
author |
Todt, M. Bunzel, F. Dobrynn, M. Fröhlich, K. Müller, Wolfgang Baehr, Johanna |
author_facet |
Todt, M. Bunzel, F. Dobrynn, M. Fröhlich, K. Müller, Wolfgang Baehr, Johanna |
author_sort |
Todt, M. |
title |
ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system |
title_short |
ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system |
title_full |
ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system |
title_fullStr |
ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system |
title_full_unstemmed |
ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system |
title_sort |
enso hindcast skill in the dwd - mpi-m - uhh seasonal prediction system |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/104466 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
10. Deutsche Klimatagung, 21. bis 24. September 2015, Hamburg Todt, M.; Bunzel, F.; Dobrynn, M.; Fröhlich, K.; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna (2015): ENSO hindcast skill in the DWD - MPI-M - UHH seasonal prediction system. Poster präsentiert bei: 10. Deutsche Klimatagung, 21. bis 24. September 2015, Hamburg. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/104466 |
op_rights |
Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11970/104466 |
_version_ |
1775355606395256832 |