Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2
Multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is shown to differ significantly between the 4 x CO2 and preindustrial control simulations of the GFDL Earth System Model, version 2M (ESM2M) general circulation model (GCM). In the preindustrial simulation, this mode...
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American Meteorological Society
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ftharvardudash:oai:dash.harvard.edu:1/41384990 2023-05-15T17:22:47+02:00 Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2 MacMartin, Douglas G. Zanna, Laure Tziperman, Eli 2016 application/pdf http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:41384990 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0533.1 en_US eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate MacMartin, Douglas G., Laure Zanna, and Eli Tziperman. 2016. “Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO2.” Journal of Climate 29 (11): 4155–64. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0533.1. 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:41384990 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0533.1 Journal Article 2016 ftharvardudash https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0533.1 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0533.1 2022-04-05T18:54:12Z Multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is shown to differ significantly between the 4 x CO2 and preindustrial control simulations of the GFDL Earth System Model, version 2M (ESM2M) general circulation model (GCM). In the preindustrial simulation, this model has a peak in the power spectrum of both AMOC and northward heat transport at latitudes between 26 degrees and 50 degrees N. In the 4 x CO2 simulation, the only significant spectral peak is near 60 degrees N. Understanding these differences is important for understanding the effect of future climate change on climate variability, as well as for providing insight into the physics underlying AMOC variability. Transfer function analysis demonstrates that the shift is predominantly due to a shift in the internal ocean dynamics rather than a change in stochastic atmospheric forcing. Specifically, the reduction in variance from 26 degrees to 45 degrees N is due to an increased stratification east of Newfoundland that results from the shallower and weaker mean overturning. The reduced AMOC variance that accompanies the reduced mean value of the AMOC at 4 x CO2 differs from predictions of simple box models that predict a weaker circulation to be closer to a stability bifurcation point and, therefore, be accompanied by amplified variability. The high-latitude variability in the 4 x CO2 simulation is related to the advection of anomalies by the subpolar gyre, distinct from the variability mechanism in the control simulation at lower latitudes. The 4 x CO2 variability has only a small effect on midlatitude meridional heat transport, but does significantly affect sea ice in the northern North Atlantic. Version of Record Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland North Atlantic Sea ice Harvard University: DASH - Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard Journal of Climate 29 11 4155 4164 |
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Harvard University: DASH - Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard |
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English |
description |
Multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is shown to differ significantly between the 4 x CO2 and preindustrial control simulations of the GFDL Earth System Model, version 2M (ESM2M) general circulation model (GCM). In the preindustrial simulation, this model has a peak in the power spectrum of both AMOC and northward heat transport at latitudes between 26 degrees and 50 degrees N. In the 4 x CO2 simulation, the only significant spectral peak is near 60 degrees N. Understanding these differences is important for understanding the effect of future climate change on climate variability, as well as for providing insight into the physics underlying AMOC variability. Transfer function analysis demonstrates that the shift is predominantly due to a shift in the internal ocean dynamics rather than a change in stochastic atmospheric forcing. Specifically, the reduction in variance from 26 degrees to 45 degrees N is due to an increased stratification east of Newfoundland that results from the shallower and weaker mean overturning. The reduced AMOC variance that accompanies the reduced mean value of the AMOC at 4 x CO2 differs from predictions of simple box models that predict a weaker circulation to be closer to a stability bifurcation point and, therefore, be accompanied by amplified variability. The high-latitude variability in the 4 x CO2 simulation is related to the advection of anomalies by the subpolar gyre, distinct from the variability mechanism in the control simulation at lower latitudes. The 4 x CO2 variability has only a small effect on midlatitude meridional heat transport, but does significantly affect sea ice in the northern North Atlantic. Version of Record |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Zanna, Laure Tziperman, Eli |
spellingShingle |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Zanna, Laure Tziperman, Eli Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2 |
author_facet |
MacMartin, Douglas G. Zanna, Laure Tziperman, Eli |
author_sort |
MacMartin, Douglas G. |
title |
Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2 |
title_short |
Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2 |
title_full |
Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2 |
title_fullStr |
Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO 2 |
title_sort |
suppression of atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability at increased co 2 |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:41384990 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0533.1 |
genre |
Newfoundland North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate MacMartin, Douglas G., Laure Zanna, and Eli Tziperman. 2016. “Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO2.” Journal of Climate 29 (11): 4155–64. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0533.1. 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:41384990 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0533.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0533.1 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0533.1 |
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Journal of Climate |
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29 |
container_issue |
11 |
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4155 |
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4164 |
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1766109641052258304 |