21st century global and regional surface temperature projections
Recent studies have been sparking concerns about the impending arrival of “tipping points” later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming...
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ftgfzpotsdam:oai:gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de:item_5020895 2023-07-23T04:15:47+02:00 21st century global and regional surface temperature projections Jiang, J. 2023-07-11 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020895 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-3647 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020895 XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject 2023 ftgfzpotsdam https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3647 2023-07-02T23:40:09Z Recent studies have been sparking concerns about the impending arrival of “tipping points” later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming is accelerating unevenly across the planet, with the Arctic warming at more than three times the average rate of our world. We also analyzed the reliability of latitude-dependent surface temperature simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and their multi-model mean (MMM) by comparing their outputs to observational data sets. We selected the best-performing models based on their statistical abilities to reproduce historical, latitude-dependent values adapted from these data sets. The surface temperature projections were calculated from ensemble simulations of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) by the selected CMIP6 models. We estimate the calendar years of when surface temperatures will increase by 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5°C relative to the preindustrial period, both globally and in the three target regions. Our results reaffirm a dramatic, upward trend in projected surface temperatures, with unprecedented acceleration in the Arctic Circle, which could lead to catastrophic consequences across the Earth. Further studies are necessary to determine the most efficient solutions to reduce global warming acceleration and maintain a low SSP, both globally and regionally. Conference Object Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
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GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) |
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ftgfzpotsdam |
language |
English |
description |
Recent studies have been sparking concerns about the impending arrival of “tipping points” later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming is accelerating unevenly across the planet, with the Arctic warming at more than three times the average rate of our world. We also analyzed the reliability of latitude-dependent surface temperature simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and their multi-model mean (MMM) by comparing their outputs to observational data sets. We selected the best-performing models based on their statistical abilities to reproduce historical, latitude-dependent values adapted from these data sets. The surface temperature projections were calculated from ensemble simulations of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) by the selected CMIP6 models. We estimate the calendar years of when surface temperatures will increase by 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5°C relative to the preindustrial period, both globally and in the three target regions. Our results reaffirm a dramatic, upward trend in projected surface temperatures, with unprecedented acceleration in the Arctic Circle, which could lead to catastrophic consequences across the Earth. Further studies are necessary to determine the most efficient solutions to reduce global warming acceleration and maintain a low SSP, both globally and regionally. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Jiang, J. |
spellingShingle |
Jiang, J. 21st century global and regional surface temperature projections |
author_facet |
Jiang, J. |
author_sort |
Jiang, J. |
title |
21st century global and regional surface temperature projections |
title_short |
21st century global and regional surface temperature projections |
title_full |
21st century global and regional surface temperature projections |
title_fullStr |
21st century global and regional surface temperature projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
21st century global and regional surface temperature projections |
title_sort |
21st century global and regional surface temperature projections |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020895 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-3647 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020895 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3647 |
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1772176795497398272 |