Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic
The early 20 th ;century warming (ETCW) in the northern;high latitudes;was comparable in magnitude to modern warming, yet occurred at a time when the increase in;atmospheric greenhouse gases;was;several times less;than in recent decades. Understanding the nature of the ETCW is the key to determine t...
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ftgfzpotsdam:oai:gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de:item_5019875 2023-07-23T04:17:10+02:00 Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic Bokuchava, D. Semenov, V. 2023 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019875 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-3958 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019875 XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject 2023 ftgfzpotsdam https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3958 2023-07-02T23:40:07Z The early 20 th ;century warming (ETCW) in the northern;high latitudes;was comparable in magnitude to modern warming, yet occurred at a time when the increase in;atmospheric greenhouse gases;was;several times less;than in recent decades. Understanding the nature of the ETCW is the key to determine the relative contribution of internal variability and external natural and anthropogenic impacts to global and regional climate change.The discrepancy between the observed and simulated by CMIP models temperature variations in the Arctic in the mid-20 th ;century indicates the important role of internal climate variability in the Northern Extratropics.;In the current study a multiple linear regression method is used as a statistical tool to analyze the functional relationships between ETCW and atmospheric and oceanic internal variability indices. The contribution of the NAO, AO, PNA, AMO and PDO indices of natural variability to climate changes in the Arctic region during the 20 th ;century is assessed using observations and reanalyses.The results of the statistical analysis supports the concept of the major role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures variability in the Arctic climate change in the mid-20 th ;century period. Conference Object Arctic Climate change North Atlantic GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) |
op_collection_id |
ftgfzpotsdam |
language |
English |
description |
The early 20 th ;century warming (ETCW) in the northern;high latitudes;was comparable in magnitude to modern warming, yet occurred at a time when the increase in;atmospheric greenhouse gases;was;several times less;than in recent decades. Understanding the nature of the ETCW is the key to determine the relative contribution of internal variability and external natural and anthropogenic impacts to global and regional climate change.The discrepancy between the observed and simulated by CMIP models temperature variations in the Arctic in the mid-20 th ;century indicates the important role of internal climate variability in the Northern Extratropics.;In the current study a multiple linear regression method is used as a statistical tool to analyze the functional relationships between ETCW and atmospheric and oceanic internal variability indices. The contribution of the NAO, AO, PNA, AMO and PDO indices of natural variability to climate changes in the Arctic region during the 20 th ;century is assessed using observations and reanalyses.The results of the statistical analysis supports the concept of the major role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures variability in the Arctic climate change in the mid-20 th ;century period. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Bokuchava, D. Semenov, V. |
spellingShingle |
Bokuchava, D. Semenov, V. Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic |
author_facet |
Bokuchava, D. Semenov, V. |
author_sort |
Bokuchava, D. |
title |
Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic |
title_short |
Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic |
title_full |
Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the Early 20th century warming in the Arctic |
title_sort |
potential contribution of the major modes of natural variability to the early 20th century warming in the arctic |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019875 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
op_source |
XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-3958 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019875 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3958 |
_version_ |
1772178504537866240 |