Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets
Rossby Wave Packets (RWPs) are linked to extreme weather events and exert a strong influence on the predictability of weather systems in the midlatitudes. Considering the whole wave packet, in the sense of the packet envelope, RWPs can be viewed as entities that describe variability of the atmospher...
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ftgfzpotsdam:oai:gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de:item_5019234 2023-10-09T21:54:03+02:00 Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets Prestel-Kupferer, I. Riemer, M. Teubler, F. Schmidt, S. 2023 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019234 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-2657 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019234 XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject 2023 ftgfzpotsdam https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2657 2023-09-10T23:43:22Z Rossby Wave Packets (RWPs) are linked to extreme weather events and exert a strong influence on the predictability of weather systems in the midlatitudes. Considering the whole wave packet, in the sense of the packet envelope, RWPs can be viewed as entities that describe variability of the atmosphere beyond the synoptic scale. We here examine the predictability of RWPs as such entities. As a verification metric we used the so-called Displacement and Amplitude Score (DAS) applied to the envelope field of the midlatitude flow. The DAS is based on a field deforming method and, as one of its major advantages, avoids the “double-penalty” verification problem without the need to identify single RWP objects. We assess RWP predictability using NOAA GEFSV12 ensemble reforecasts for RWPs that have been previously tracked in reanalysis data. A prominent result is that RWP predictability depends on the stage of the RWP lifecycle: The propagation stage exhibits higher predictability than the decay or genesis stage. A small seasonal dependence is found, with summer being the least predicable season. No significant dependence is found on geographical (northern hemispheric) location. We will further discuss the link of RWP predictability to MJO activity and phases, and to the occurrence of North Atlantic-European weather regimes as one means to better understand the role of these large-scale, low-frequency phenomena on midlatitude predictability. Conference Object North Atlantic GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) |
op_collection_id |
ftgfzpotsdam |
language |
English |
description |
Rossby Wave Packets (RWPs) are linked to extreme weather events and exert a strong influence on the predictability of weather systems in the midlatitudes. Considering the whole wave packet, in the sense of the packet envelope, RWPs can be viewed as entities that describe variability of the atmosphere beyond the synoptic scale. We here examine the predictability of RWPs as such entities. As a verification metric we used the so-called Displacement and Amplitude Score (DAS) applied to the envelope field of the midlatitude flow. The DAS is based on a field deforming method and, as one of its major advantages, avoids the “double-penalty” verification problem without the need to identify single RWP objects. We assess RWP predictability using NOAA GEFSV12 ensemble reforecasts for RWPs that have been previously tracked in reanalysis data. A prominent result is that RWP predictability depends on the stage of the RWP lifecycle: The propagation stage exhibits higher predictability than the decay or genesis stage. A small seasonal dependence is found, with summer being the least predicable season. No significant dependence is found on geographical (northern hemispheric) location. We will further discuss the link of RWP predictability to MJO activity and phases, and to the occurrence of North Atlantic-European weather regimes as one means to better understand the role of these large-scale, low-frequency phenomena on midlatitude predictability. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Prestel-Kupferer, I. Riemer, M. Teubler, F. Schmidt, S. |
spellingShingle |
Prestel-Kupferer, I. Riemer, M. Teubler, F. Schmidt, S. Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets |
author_facet |
Prestel-Kupferer, I. Riemer, M. Teubler, F. Schmidt, S. |
author_sort |
Prestel-Kupferer, I. |
title |
Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets |
title_short |
Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets |
title_full |
Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of midlatitude Rossby wave packets |
title_sort |
predictability of midlatitude rossby wave packets |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019234 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-2657 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019234 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2657 |
_version_ |
1779317480419753984 |