Projection of extreme weather induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere

• Main Author: Liu, J.
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: Arctic; Climate change; Siberia
• Online Access: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018612

Since the 1980s, the Arctic has warmed at a rate of two to four times that of the world. This “Arctic amplification (AA)” has caused changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, and thus affected the occurrence of extreme events at mid-high latitudes. As important weather disasters in the Northern Hemisphere, extreme weathers such as dust and extreme precipitation are still controversial in connection with the AA. We indicated that the enhanced AA can result in the anticyclonic anomalies over Siberia and Mongolia, while cyclonic anomalies over East Europe. These results are significantly correlated with the weakened temperature gradients and weakened westly winds in the midlatitude, which may contribute to the reduction of dust occurrences over East Asia in the past and future. Moreover, we also found that the planetary-scale wave amplitude has increased significantly at 0.66 degree /decade with the enhancement of AA since the mid-1980s. This is associated with a negative Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and an increased duration of weather patterns, resulting in more extreme precipitation events. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP585 scenario for CMIP6 model, extreme precipitation increases by 8.7% along with wave amplitude increase of 7.9 degrees by 2100. These results provide further evidence of the connection between the Arctic and mid-latitude weather, and highlight the importance of research on current Arctic climate change.