Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges?
We present results of a storm surge simulation driven by the atmosphere of a climate model in which a catastrophic shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is induced. Projections of change in the North Atlantic storm tracks in a warming world are highly uncertain and clima...
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ftgfzpotsdam:oai:gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de:item_5015928 2023-06-11T04:14:49+02:00 Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? Howard, T. Palmer, M. 2023 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5015928 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-0488 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5015928 XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject 2023 ftgfzpotsdam https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0488 2023-04-23T23:38:34Z We present results of a storm surge simulation driven by the atmosphere of a climate model in which a catastrophic shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is induced. Projections of change in the North Atlantic storm tracks in a warming world are highly uncertain and climate models show various responses. Atmospheric storms drive storm surges which are a major component of UK coastal flooding hazard, so it is important to ask how this process may be affected by climate change — not only what change is probable, but also what is possible? Our simulation is a contribution to answering that question. We also consider an ensemble simulation with a high-climate-sensitivity model under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). We find significant simulated increases for some sites: up to about 0.4 metres increase (approximately 25%) in the expected annual maximum. In both the AMOC-collapse and the ensemble simulation, the largest projected increases appear at some west coast sites, associated with a growth in the strongest westerly winds. Projected changes on the south-east coast are smaller in the AMOC-collapse simulation and generally negative in the ensemble simulation, which exhibits a decrease in strong northerly winds in addition to the growth in westerlies. Overall, these increases due to atmospheric storminess change are smaller than the expected contribution from mean sea-level rise over the 21st century, but larger than the “high-end” changes due to atmospheric storminess change which were reported in UKCP18. Conference Object North Atlantic GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) |
op_collection_id |
ftgfzpotsdam |
language |
English |
description |
We present results of a storm surge simulation driven by the atmosphere of a climate model in which a catastrophic shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is induced. Projections of change in the North Atlantic storm tracks in a warming world are highly uncertain and climate models show various responses. Atmospheric storms drive storm surges which are a major component of UK coastal flooding hazard, so it is important to ask how this process may be affected by climate change — not only what change is probable, but also what is possible? Our simulation is a contribution to answering that question. We also consider an ensemble simulation with a high-climate-sensitivity model under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). We find significant simulated increases for some sites: up to about 0.4 metres increase (approximately 25%) in the expected annual maximum. In both the AMOC-collapse and the ensemble simulation, the largest projected increases appear at some west coast sites, associated with a growth in the strongest westerly winds. Projected changes on the south-east coast are smaller in the AMOC-collapse simulation and generally negative in the ensemble simulation, which exhibits a decrease in strong northerly winds in addition to the growth in westerlies. Overall, these increases due to atmospheric storminess change are smaller than the expected contribution from mean sea-level rise over the 21st century, but larger than the “high-end” changes due to atmospheric storminess change which were reported in UKCP18. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Howard, T. Palmer, M. |
spellingShingle |
Howard, T. Palmer, M. Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? |
author_facet |
Howard, T. Palmer, M. |
author_sort |
Howard, T. |
title |
Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? |
title_short |
Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? |
title_full |
Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? |
title_fullStr |
Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? |
title_sort |
will storm track changes impact uk storm surges? |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5015928 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.57757/IUGG23-0488 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5015928 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0488 |
_version_ |
1768371139675947008 |