Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information
We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the G...
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2022
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ftgfzpotsdam:oai:gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de:item_5012364 2023-05-15T18:18:21+02:00 Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information Steirou, E. Gerlitz, L. Sun, X. Apel, H. Agarwal, A. Totz, S. Merz, B. 2022 application/pdf https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364_1/component/file_5012885/5012364.pdf unknown info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364_1/component/file_5012885/5012364.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Scientific Reports info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftgfzpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 2022-12-12T00:32:16Z We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) Scientific Reports 12 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam) |
op_collection_id |
ftgfzpotsdam |
language |
unknown |
description |
We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Steirou, E. Gerlitz, L. Sun, X. Apel, H. Agarwal, A. Totz, S. Merz, B. |
spellingShingle |
Steirou, E. Gerlitz, L. Sun, X. Apel, H. Agarwal, A. Totz, S. Merz, B. Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
author_facet |
Steirou, E. Gerlitz, L. Sun, X. Apel, H. Agarwal, A. Totz, S. Merz, B. |
author_sort |
Steirou, E. |
title |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_short |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_full |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_fullStr |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_sort |
towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in europe using climate and catchment information |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364_1/component/file_5012885/5012364.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Scientific Reports |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5012364_1/component/file_5012885/5012364.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766194895182102528 |