An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes
The recent elevated North Atlantic hurricane activity has generated considerable interests in the interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and climate change. The possible connection between TCs and the changing climate has been indicated by observational studies based on historical TC records; t...
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Georgia Institute of Technology
2011
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1853/41062 |
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ftgeorgiatech:oai:repository.gatech.edu:1853/41062 2024-06-02T08:11:22+00:00 An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes Suzuki-Parker, Asuka Webster, Peter J. Holland, Greg Black, Robert X. Curry, Judy Deng, Yi Earth and Atmospheric Sciences 2011-05-04 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1853/41062 unknown Georgia Institute of Technology http://hdl.handle.net/1853/41062 Tropical cyclones Climate change Regional climate modeling Dynamical downscaling Extreme value theory Cyclones Tropics Cyclones Tropics Forecasting Climatic changes Text Dissertation 2011 ftgeorgiatech 2024-05-06T11:13:22Z The recent elevated North Atlantic hurricane activity has generated considerable interests in the interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and climate change. The possible connection between TCs and the changing climate has been indicated by observational studies based on historical TC records; they indicate emerging trends in TC frequency and intensity in some TC basins, but the detection of trends has been hotly debated due to TC track data issues. Dynamical climate modeling has also been applied to the problem, but brings its own set of limitations owing to limited model resolution and uncertainties. The final goal of this study is to project the future changes of North Atlantic TC behavior with global warming for the next 50 years using the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). Throughout the course of reaching this goal, various uncertainties and limitations in simulating TCs by the NRCM are identified and explored. First we examine the TC tracking algorithm to detect and track simulated TCs from model output. The criteria and thresholds used in the tracking algorithm control the simulated TC climatology, making it difficult to objectively assess the model's ability in simulating TC climatology. Existing tracking algorithms used by previous studies are surveyed and it is found that the criteria and thresholds are very diverse. Sensitivity of varying criteria and thresholds in TC tracking algorithm to simulated TC climatology is very high, especially with the intensity and duration thresholds. It is found that the commonly used criteria may not be strict enough to filter out intense extratropical systems and hybrid systems. We propose that a better distinction between TCs and other low-pressure systems can be achieved by adding the Cyclone Phase technique. Two sets of NRCM simulations are presented in this dissertation: One in the hindcasting mode, and the other with forcing from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) to project into the future with global warming. Both of these simulations are ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis North Atlantic Georgia Institute of Technology: SMARTech - Scholarly Materials and Research at Georgia Tech |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Georgia Institute of Technology: SMARTech - Scholarly Materials and Research at Georgia Tech |
op_collection_id |
ftgeorgiatech |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Tropical cyclones Climate change Regional climate modeling Dynamical downscaling Extreme value theory Cyclones Tropics Cyclones Tropics Forecasting Climatic changes |
spellingShingle |
Tropical cyclones Climate change Regional climate modeling Dynamical downscaling Extreme value theory Cyclones Tropics Cyclones Tropics Forecasting Climatic changes Suzuki-Parker, Asuka An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes |
topic_facet |
Tropical cyclones Climate change Regional climate modeling Dynamical downscaling Extreme value theory Cyclones Tropics Cyclones Tropics Forecasting Climatic changes |
description |
The recent elevated North Atlantic hurricane activity has generated considerable interests in the interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and climate change. The possible connection between TCs and the changing climate has been indicated by observational studies based on historical TC records; they indicate emerging trends in TC frequency and intensity in some TC basins, but the detection of trends has been hotly debated due to TC track data issues. Dynamical climate modeling has also been applied to the problem, but brings its own set of limitations owing to limited model resolution and uncertainties. The final goal of this study is to project the future changes of North Atlantic TC behavior with global warming for the next 50 years using the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). Throughout the course of reaching this goal, various uncertainties and limitations in simulating TCs by the NRCM are identified and explored. First we examine the TC tracking algorithm to detect and track simulated TCs from model output. The criteria and thresholds used in the tracking algorithm control the simulated TC climatology, making it difficult to objectively assess the model's ability in simulating TC climatology. Existing tracking algorithms used by previous studies are surveyed and it is found that the criteria and thresholds are very diverse. Sensitivity of varying criteria and thresholds in TC tracking algorithm to simulated TC climatology is very high, especially with the intensity and duration thresholds. It is found that the commonly used criteria may not be strict enough to filter out intense extratropical systems and hybrid systems. We propose that a better distinction between TCs and other low-pressure systems can be achieved by adding the Cyclone Phase technique. Two sets of NRCM simulations are presented in this dissertation: One in the hindcasting mode, and the other with forcing from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) to project into the future with global warming. Both of these simulations are ... |
author2 |
Webster, Peter J. Holland, Greg Black, Robert X. Curry, Judy Deng, Yi Earth and Atmospheric Sciences |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Suzuki-Parker, Asuka |
author_facet |
Suzuki-Parker, Asuka |
author_sort |
Suzuki-Parker, Asuka |
title |
An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes |
title_short |
An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes |
title_full |
An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes |
title_fullStr |
An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes |
title_sort |
assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes |
publisher |
Georgia Institute of Technology |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1853/41062 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/1853/41062 |
_version_ |
1800757493547139072 |