Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed
Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can have substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are not entirely clear. Here, such st...
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ftfuberlin:oai:refubium.fu-berlin.de:fub188/35008 2023-05-15T17:28:25+02:00 Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan 2022 20 Seiten application/pdf https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/35008 https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-34725 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 eng eng https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/35008 http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-34725 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY North Atlantic winter cyclones Cyclone intensity vorticity anomalies horizontal wind speed ddc:551 doc-type:article 2022 ftfuberlin https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-34725 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 2022-06-12T22:23:51Z Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can have substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are not entirely clear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at different levels. Projected changes in cyclone intensity are generally rather small. However, using cyclone-relative composites, we identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the center of strong cyclones, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate for each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. Altogether, our results indicate that a complex interaction of enhanced diabatic heating and altered non-linear upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Freie Universität Berlin: Refubium (FU Berlin) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Freie Universität Berlin: Refubium (FU Berlin) |
op_collection_id |
ftfuberlin |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic winter cyclones Cyclone intensity vorticity anomalies horizontal wind speed ddc:551 |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic winter cyclones Cyclone intensity vorticity anomalies horizontal wind speed ddc:551 Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic winter cyclones Cyclone intensity vorticity anomalies horizontal wind speed ddc:551 |
description |
Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can have substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are not entirely clear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at different levels. Projected changes in cyclone intensity are generally rather small. However, using cyclone-relative composites, we identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the center of strong cyclones, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate for each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. Altogether, our results indicate that a complex interaction of enhanced diabatic heating and altered non-linear upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan |
author_facet |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar Teubler, Franziska Pfahl, Stephan |
author_sort |
Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar |
title |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_short |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_full |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
title_sort |
future changes in north atlantic winter cyclones in cesm-le – part 1: cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/35008 https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-34725 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/35008 http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-34725 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-34725 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022 |
_version_ |
1766121075033243648 |