Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms

• Main Author: Pardowitz, Tobias
• Other Authors: [e-mail], m, Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich, PD Dr. Gregor C. Leckebusch
• Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: climate change; winter storms; impacts; ddc:551; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/13533; https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-17731; https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-fudissthesis000000098134-8

Abstract iii Zusammenfassung v 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Objectives of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2 Outline of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 Projected Changes in European Winter Storm Climate 9 2.1 Introduction and Current State of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2 Data and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.1 Reanalysis Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.2 Global Climate Model Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.3 Wind Field Tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.2.4 Storm Severity Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.2.5 Extreme Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.3 Recent and Future Winter Storm Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.3.1 Statistical Uncertainty and Natural Variability . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.3.3 Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.4 Intensities of Recent and Future Winter Storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.4.1 Statistical Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.4.2 Scenario Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.4.3 Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.5 Summary and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3 Mechanisms Related to Changes in European Winter Storm Climate 45 3.1 Introduction and Current State of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.2 Data and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.1 Reanalysis Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.2 Global Climate Model Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.3 Assessment of the North Atlantic Oscillation . . . . . . ...