Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms
Abstract iii Zusammenfassung v 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Objectives of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2 Outline of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 Projected Changes in European Winter Storm Climate 9 2.1 Introduction and C...
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ftfuberlin:oai:refubium.fu-berlin.de:fub188/13533 2023-05-15T17:33:12+02:00 Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms Mechanisms, Impacts and their Uncertainties Anthropogene Änderungen in Frequenz und Intensität Europäischer Winterstürme Mechanismen, Auswirkungen und ihre Unsicherheiten Pardowitz, Tobias tobias.pardowitz@met.fu-berlin.de m Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich PD Dr. Gregor C. Leckebusch 2015 151 S. application/pdf https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/13533 https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-17731 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-fudissthesis000000098134-8 eng eng https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/13533 http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-17731 urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-fudissthesis000000098134-8 http://www.fu-berlin.de/sites/refubium/rechtliches/Nutzungsbedingungen climate change winter storms impacts ddc:551 doc-type:doctoralThesis 2015 ftfuberlin https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-17731 2022-05-15T20:50:58Z Abstract iii Zusammenfassung v 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Objectives of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2 Outline of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 Projected Changes in European Winter Storm Climate 9 2.1 Introduction and Current State of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2 Data and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.1 Reanalysis Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.2 Global Climate Model Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.3 Wind Field Tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.2.4 Storm Severity Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.2.5 Extreme Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.3 Recent and Future Winter Storm Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.3.1 Statistical Uncertainty and Natural Variability . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.3.3 Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.4 Intensities of Recent and Future Winter Storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.4.1 Statistical Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.4.2 Scenario Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.4.3 Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.5 Summary and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3 Mechanisms Related to Changes in European Winter Storm Climate 45 3.1 Introduction and Current State of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.2 Data and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.1 Reanalysis Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.2 Global Climate Model Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.3 Assessment of the North Atlantic Oscillation . . . . . . ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Freie Universität Berlin: Refubium (FU Berlin) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Freie Universität Berlin: Refubium (FU Berlin) |
op_collection_id |
ftfuberlin |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change winter storms impacts ddc:551 |
spellingShingle |
climate change winter storms impacts ddc:551 Pardowitz, Tobias Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms |
topic_facet |
climate change winter storms impacts ddc:551 |
description |
Abstract iii Zusammenfassung v 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Objectives of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2 Outline of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 Projected Changes in European Winter Storm Climate 9 2.1 Introduction and Current State of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2 Data and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.1 Reanalysis Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.2 Global Climate Model Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2.3 Wind Field Tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.2.4 Storm Severity Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.2.5 Extreme Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.3 Recent and Future Winter Storm Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.3.1 Statistical Uncertainty and Natural Variability . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.3.3 Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.4 Intensities of Recent and Future Winter Storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.4.1 Statistical Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.4.2 Scenario Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.4.3 Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.5 Summary and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3 Mechanisms Related to Changes in European Winter Storm Climate 45 3.1 Introduction and Current State of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.2 Data and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.1 Reanalysis Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.2 Global Climate Model Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.3 Assessment of the North Atlantic Oscillation . . . . . . ... |
author2 |
tobias.pardowitz@met.fu-berlin.de m Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich PD Dr. Gregor C. Leckebusch |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Pardowitz, Tobias |
author_facet |
Pardowitz, Tobias |
author_sort |
Pardowitz, Tobias |
title |
Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms |
title_short |
Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms |
title_full |
Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic Changes in the Frequency and Severity of European Winter Storms |
title_sort |
anthropogenic changes in the frequency and severity of european winter storms |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/13533 https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-17731 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-fudissthesis000000098134-8 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/13533 http://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-17731 urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-fudissthesis000000098134-8 |
op_rights |
http://www.fu-berlin.de/sites/refubium/rechtliches/Nutzungsbedingungen |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-17731 |
_version_ |
1766131624336949248 |