Presentation_1_Bayesian Network Modeling and Expert Elicitation for Probabilistic Eruption Forecasting: Pilot Study for Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand.PDF

• Main Authors: Annemarie Christophersen, Natalia I. Deligne, Anca M. Hanea, Lauriane Chardot, Nicolas Fournier, Willy P. Aspinall
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Solid Earth Sciences; Climate Science; Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified; Exploration Geochemistry; Inorganic Geochemistry; Isotope Geochemistry; Organic Geochemistry; Geochemistry not elsewhere classified; Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology; Ore Deposit Petrology; Palaeontology (incl. Palynology); Structural Geology; Tectonics; Volcanology; Geology not elsewhere classified; Seismology and Seismic Exploration; Glaciology; Hydrogeology; Natural Hazards; Quaternary Environments; Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified; Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change; Bayesian networks; structured expert judgment; volcano monitoring; eruption forecasting; White Island; New Zealand
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00211.s001; https://figshare.com/articles/Presentation_1_Bayesian_Network_Modeling_and_Expert_Elicitation_for_Probabilistic_Eruption_Forecasting_Pilot_Study_for_Whakaari_White_Island_New_Zealand_PDF/7374482

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that provide a robust and flexible framework for understanding complex systems. Limited case studies have demonstrated the potential of BNs in modeling multiple data streams for eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. Neverthele...