DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf
Two ensemble simulations of a new Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 (SOlar Climate Ozone Links, version 4) for the period from 2015 to 2099 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission growth were analyzed to investigate changes in key dynamical processes...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1214418.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet1_Arctic_stratosphere_changes_in_the_21st_century_in_the_Earth_system_model_SOCOLv4_pdf/23917170 |
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ftfrontimediafig:oai:figshare.com:article/23917170 2024-09-15T18:02:16+00:00 DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf Pavel Vargin Sergey Kostrykin Andrey Koval Eugene Rozanov Tatiana Egorova Sergey Smyshlyaev Natalia Tsvetkova 2023-08-10T04:06:03Z https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1214418.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet1_Arctic_stratosphere_changes_in_the_21st_century_in_the_Earth_system_model_SOCOLv4_pdf/23917170 unknown doi:10.3389/feart.2023.1214418.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet1_Arctic_stratosphere_changes_in_the_21st_century_in_the_Earth_system_model_SOCOLv4_pdf/23917170 CC BY 4.0 Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change climate change of stratosphere stratospheric ozone stratospheric polar vortex polar stratospheric clouds residual meridional circulation planetary waves SOCOLv4 Dataset 2023 ftfrontimediafig https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1214418.s001 2024-08-19T06:19:57Z Two ensemble simulations of a new Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 (SOlar Climate Ozone Links, version 4) for the period from 2015 to 2099 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission growth were analyzed to investigate changes in key dynamical processes relevant for Arctic stratospheric ozone. The model shows a 5–10 K cooling and 5%–20% humidity increase in the Arctic lower–upper stratosphere in March (when the most considerable ozone depletion may occur) between 2080–2099 and 2015–2034. The minimal temperature in the lower polar stratosphere in March, which defines the strength of ozone depletion, appears when the zonal mean meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere in the preceding January–February is the lowest. In the late 21st century, the strengthening of the zonal mean meridional heat flux with a maximum of up to 20 K m/s (∼25%) in the upper stratosphere close to 70°N in January–February is obtained in the moderate scenario of GHG emission, while only a slight increase in this parameter over 50 N–60 N with the maximum up to 5 K m/s in the upper stratosphere and a decrease with the comparable values over the high latitudes is revealed in the severe GHG emission scenario. Although the model simulations confirm the expected ozone layer recovery, particularly total ozone minimum values inside the Arctic polar cap in March throughout the 21st century are characterized by a positive trend in both scenarios, the large-scale negative ozone anomalies in March up to −80 DU–100 DU, comparable to the second lowest ones observed in March 2011 but weaker than record values in March 2020, are possible in the Arctic until the late 21st century. The volume of low stratospheric air with temperatures below the solid nitric acid trihydrate polar stratospheric cloud (PSC NAT) formation threshold is reconstructed from 3D potential vorticity and temperature fields inside the stratospheric polar vortex. A significant positive trend is shown in this parameter in March in the ... Dataset Climate change Frontiers: Figshare |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Frontiers: Figshare |
op_collection_id |
ftfrontimediafig |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change climate change of stratosphere stratospheric ozone stratospheric polar vortex polar stratospheric clouds residual meridional circulation planetary waves SOCOLv4 |
spellingShingle |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change climate change of stratosphere stratospheric ozone stratospheric polar vortex polar stratospheric clouds residual meridional circulation planetary waves SOCOLv4 Pavel Vargin Sergey Kostrykin Andrey Koval Eugene Rozanov Tatiana Egorova Sergey Smyshlyaev Natalia Tsvetkova DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf |
topic_facet |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change climate change of stratosphere stratospheric ozone stratospheric polar vortex polar stratospheric clouds residual meridional circulation planetary waves SOCOLv4 |
description |
Two ensemble simulations of a new Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 (SOlar Climate Ozone Links, version 4) for the period from 2015 to 2099 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission growth were analyzed to investigate changes in key dynamical processes relevant for Arctic stratospheric ozone. The model shows a 5–10 K cooling and 5%–20% humidity increase in the Arctic lower–upper stratosphere in March (when the most considerable ozone depletion may occur) between 2080–2099 and 2015–2034. The minimal temperature in the lower polar stratosphere in March, which defines the strength of ozone depletion, appears when the zonal mean meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere in the preceding January–February is the lowest. In the late 21st century, the strengthening of the zonal mean meridional heat flux with a maximum of up to 20 K m/s (∼25%) in the upper stratosphere close to 70°N in January–February is obtained in the moderate scenario of GHG emission, while only a slight increase in this parameter over 50 N–60 N with the maximum up to 5 K m/s in the upper stratosphere and a decrease with the comparable values over the high latitudes is revealed in the severe GHG emission scenario. Although the model simulations confirm the expected ozone layer recovery, particularly total ozone minimum values inside the Arctic polar cap in March throughout the 21st century are characterized by a positive trend in both scenarios, the large-scale negative ozone anomalies in March up to −80 DU–100 DU, comparable to the second lowest ones observed in March 2011 but weaker than record values in March 2020, are possible in the Arctic until the late 21st century. The volume of low stratospheric air with temperatures below the solid nitric acid trihydrate polar stratospheric cloud (PSC NAT) formation threshold is reconstructed from 3D potential vorticity and temperature fields inside the stratospheric polar vortex. A significant positive trend is shown in this parameter in March in the ... |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Pavel Vargin Sergey Kostrykin Andrey Koval Eugene Rozanov Tatiana Egorova Sergey Smyshlyaev Natalia Tsvetkova |
author_facet |
Pavel Vargin Sergey Kostrykin Andrey Koval Eugene Rozanov Tatiana Egorova Sergey Smyshlyaev Natalia Tsvetkova |
author_sort |
Pavel Vargin |
title |
DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf |
title_short |
DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf |
title_full |
DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf |
title_fullStr |
DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf |
title_full_unstemmed |
DataSheet1_Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4.pdf |
title_sort |
datasheet1_arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the earth system model socolv4.pdf |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1214418.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet1_Arctic_stratosphere_changes_in_the_21st_century_in_the_Earth_system_model_SOCOLv4_pdf/23917170 |
genre |
Climate change |
genre_facet |
Climate change |
op_relation |
doi:10.3389/feart.2023.1214418.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet1_Arctic_stratosphere_changes_in_the_21st_century_in_the_Earth_system_model_SOCOLv4_pdf/23917170 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1214418.s001 |
_version_ |
1810439735226662912 |