DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx
The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea, is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atla...
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ftfrontimediafig:oai:figshare.com:article/20286129 2023-05-15T17:36:06+02:00 DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx Shuangqiang Wang F. Javier Murillo Ellen Kenchington 2022-07-11T13:01:36Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet_1_Climate-Change_Refugia_for_the_Bubblegum_Coral_Paragorgia_arborea_in_the_Northwest_Atlantic_docx/20286129 unknown doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.863693.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet_1_Climate-Change_Refugia_for_the_Bubblegum_Coral_Paragorgia_arborea_in_the_Northwest_Atlantic_docx/20286129 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering climate-change refugia deep-sea coral species distribution modeling model transferability lagrangian particle tracking Paragorgia arborea protected area design Dataset 2022 ftfrontimediafig https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693.s001 2022-07-13T23:06:10Z The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea, is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Recently, basin-scale habitat suitability ensemble modeling has projected an alarming loss of 99% of suitable habitat for this species across the North Atlantic by 2100. Here, a regional reassessment of the predicted distribution of this species in the bioregion, using both machine learning (random forest) and generalized additive model (GAM) frameworks, including projection to 2046−2065, was undertaken. Extrapolation diagnostics were applied to determine the degree to which the models projected into novel covariate space (i.e., extrapolation) in order to avoid erroneous inferences. The best predictors of the species’ distribution were a suite of temporally-invariant terrain variables that identified suitable habitat along the upper continental slope. Additional predictors, projected to vary with future ocean climatologies, identified areas of the upper slope in the eastern portion of the study area that will remain within suitable ranges for P. arborea at least through to the mid-century. Additionally, 3-D Lagrangian particle tracking simulations indicated potential for both connectivity among known occurrence sites and existing protected areas, and for colonization of unsurveyed areas predicted to have suitable habitat, from locations of known occurrence. These results showed that extirpation of this iconic species from the Scotian Shelf bioregion is unlikely over the next decades. Potential climate refugia were identified and results presented in the context of protected area network design properties of representativity, connectivity, adequacy, viability and resilience. Dataset North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea Frontiers: Figshare Canada Gam ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Frontiers: Figshare |
op_collection_id |
ftfrontimediafig |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering climate-change refugia deep-sea coral species distribution modeling model transferability lagrangian particle tracking Paragorgia arborea protected area design |
spellingShingle |
Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering climate-change refugia deep-sea coral species distribution modeling model transferability lagrangian particle tracking Paragorgia arborea protected area design Shuangqiang Wang F. Javier Murillo Ellen Kenchington DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx |
topic_facet |
Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering climate-change refugia deep-sea coral species distribution modeling model transferability lagrangian particle tracking Paragorgia arborea protected area design |
description |
The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea, is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Recently, basin-scale habitat suitability ensemble modeling has projected an alarming loss of 99% of suitable habitat for this species across the North Atlantic by 2100. Here, a regional reassessment of the predicted distribution of this species in the bioregion, using both machine learning (random forest) and generalized additive model (GAM) frameworks, including projection to 2046−2065, was undertaken. Extrapolation diagnostics were applied to determine the degree to which the models projected into novel covariate space (i.e., extrapolation) in order to avoid erroneous inferences. The best predictors of the species’ distribution were a suite of temporally-invariant terrain variables that identified suitable habitat along the upper continental slope. Additional predictors, projected to vary with future ocean climatologies, identified areas of the upper slope in the eastern portion of the study area that will remain within suitable ranges for P. arborea at least through to the mid-century. Additionally, 3-D Lagrangian particle tracking simulations indicated potential for both connectivity among known occurrence sites and existing protected areas, and for colonization of unsurveyed areas predicted to have suitable habitat, from locations of known occurrence. These results showed that extirpation of this iconic species from the Scotian Shelf bioregion is unlikely over the next decades. Potential climate refugia were identified and results presented in the context of protected area network design properties of representativity, connectivity, adequacy, viability and resilience. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Shuangqiang Wang F. Javier Murillo Ellen Kenchington |
author_facet |
Shuangqiang Wang F. Javier Murillo Ellen Kenchington |
author_sort |
Shuangqiang Wang |
title |
DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx |
title_short |
DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx |
title_full |
DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx |
title_fullStr |
DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx |
title_full_unstemmed |
DataSheet_1_Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic.docx |
title_sort |
datasheet_1_climate-change refugia for the bubblegum coral paragorgia arborea in the northwest atlantic.docx |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet_1_Climate-Change_Refugia_for_the_Bubblegum_Coral_Paragorgia_arborea_in_the_Northwest_Atlantic_docx/20286129 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
geographic |
Canada Gam |
geographic_facet |
Canada Gam |
genre |
North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea |
op_relation |
doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.863693.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/DataSheet_1_Climate-Change_Refugia_for_the_Bubblegum_Coral_Paragorgia_arborea_in_the_Northwest_Atlantic_docx/20286129 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693.s001 |
_version_ |
1766135468545540096 |