Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a...
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ftfrontimediafig:oai:figshare.com:article/19739317 2023-05-15T16:35:51+02:00 Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4 Hannah von Hammerstein Renee O. Setter Martin van Aswegen Jens J. Currie Stephanie H. Stack 2022-05-10T12:30:36Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.837772.s003 https://figshare.com/articles/media/Video_1_High-Resolution_Projections_of_Global_Sea_Surface_Temperatures_Reveal_Critical_Warming_in_Humpback_Whale_Breeding_Grounds_mp4/19739317 unknown doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.837772.s003 https://figshare.com/articles/media/Video_1_High-Resolution_Projections_of_Global_Sea_Surface_Temperatures_Reveal_Critical_Warming_in_Humpback_Whale_Breeding_Grounds_mp4/19739317 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breeding grounds sea surface temperature (SST) climate change climate modeling statistical downscaling delta method general circulation models Dataset Media 2022 ftfrontimediafig https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.837772.s003 2022-05-11T23:04:34Z Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a warming ocean on marine organisms, large-scale projections of climatic variables are crucial. Global models are of 0.25 - 1° (~25-100 km) resolution, and not ideal to predict localized changes. Here, we provide 0.05° resolution (~5 km) sea surface temperature (SST) projections, statistically downscaled using the delta method. We illustrate the shifting isotherms of the critical 21 and 28°C boundaries, which border the climatic envelope that humpback whales prefer for their breeding grounds, over the course of the 21st century on a decadal temporal resolution. Results show by the end of the 21st century, 35% of humpback whale breeding areas will experience SSTs above or within 1°C of current thresholds if present-day social, economic, and technological trends continue (‘middle of the road’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP2-RCP4.5). This number rises to 67% under the scenario describing rapid economic growth in carbon-intensive industries (‘fossil-fueled development’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP5-RCP8.5). These projections highlight the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing further SST increases to preserve ecological integrity of humpback whale breeding areas. In this context, our results emphasize the need to focus on protection of critical ocean habitat and to provide high-resolution climate data for this purpose. Dataset Humpback Whale Megaptera novaeangliae Frontiers: Figshare |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Frontiers: Figshare |
op_collection_id |
ftfrontimediafig |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breeding grounds sea surface temperature (SST) climate change climate modeling statistical downscaling delta method general circulation models |
spellingShingle |
Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breeding grounds sea surface temperature (SST) climate change climate modeling statistical downscaling delta method general circulation models Hannah von Hammerstein Renee O. Setter Martin van Aswegen Jens J. Currie Stephanie H. Stack Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4 |
topic_facet |
Oceanography Marine Biology Marine Geoscience Biological Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Marine Engineering humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breeding grounds sea surface temperature (SST) climate change climate modeling statistical downscaling delta method general circulation models |
description |
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a warming ocean on marine organisms, large-scale projections of climatic variables are crucial. Global models are of 0.25 - 1° (~25-100 km) resolution, and not ideal to predict localized changes. Here, we provide 0.05° resolution (~5 km) sea surface temperature (SST) projections, statistically downscaled using the delta method. We illustrate the shifting isotherms of the critical 21 and 28°C boundaries, which border the climatic envelope that humpback whales prefer for their breeding grounds, over the course of the 21st century on a decadal temporal resolution. Results show by the end of the 21st century, 35% of humpback whale breeding areas will experience SSTs above or within 1°C of current thresholds if present-day social, economic, and technological trends continue (‘middle of the road’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP2-RCP4.5). This number rises to 67% under the scenario describing rapid economic growth in carbon-intensive industries (‘fossil-fueled development’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP5-RCP8.5). These projections highlight the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing further SST increases to preserve ecological integrity of humpback whale breeding areas. In this context, our results emphasize the need to focus on protection of critical ocean habitat and to provide high-resolution climate data for this purpose. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Hannah von Hammerstein Renee O. Setter Martin van Aswegen Jens J. Currie Stephanie H. Stack |
author_facet |
Hannah von Hammerstein Renee O. Setter Martin van Aswegen Jens J. Currie Stephanie H. Stack |
author_sort |
Hannah von Hammerstein |
title |
Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4 |
title_short |
Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4 |
title_full |
Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4 |
title_fullStr |
Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Video_1_High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds.mp4 |
title_sort |
video_1_high-resolution projections of global sea surface temperatures reveal critical warming in humpback whale breeding grounds.mp4 |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.837772.s003 https://figshare.com/articles/media/Video_1_High-Resolution_Projections_of_Global_Sea_Surface_Temperatures_Reveal_Critical_Warming_in_Humpback_Whale_Breeding_Grounds_mp4/19739317 |
genre |
Humpback Whale Megaptera novaeangliae |
genre_facet |
Humpback Whale Megaptera novaeangliae |
op_relation |
doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.837772.s003 https://figshare.com/articles/media/Video_1_High-Resolution_Projections_of_Global_Sea_Surface_Temperatures_Reveal_Critical_Warming_in_Humpback_Whale_Breeding_Grounds_mp4/19739317 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.837772.s003 |
_version_ |
1766026151120076800 |