presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf
Camp Century is an American military base built in 1959 under the surface of the Greenland ice sheet and decommissioned in 1967. Here, we use outputs from RACMO2.3p2 and CanESM2 climate models, adjusted to meteorological observations, and a firn model to simulate the firn density and temperature at...
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ftfrontimediafig:oai:figshare.com:article/14261048 2023-05-15T16:26:59+02:00 presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf Baptiste Vandecrux William Colgan Anne M. Solgaard Jørgen Peder Steffensen Nanna B. Karlsson 2021-03-22T14:47:51Z https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.578978.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/presentation/presentation1_Firn_Evolution_at_Camp_Century_Greenland_1966_2100_pdf/14261048 unknown doi:10.3389/feart.2021.578978.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/presentation/presentation1_Firn_Evolution_at_Camp_Century_Greenland_1966_2100_pdf/14261048 CC BY 4.0 CC-BY Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change greenland ice sheet firn surface mass balance accumulation camp century future climate Text Presentation 2021 ftfrontimediafig https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.578978.s001 2021-03-24T23:58:18Z Camp Century is an American military base built in 1959 under the surface of the Greenland ice sheet and decommissioned in 1967. Here, we use outputs from RACMO2.3p2 and CanESM2 climate models, adjusted to meteorological observations, and a firn model to simulate the firn density and temperature at Camp Century between 1966 and 2100. The model output is evaluated against an extensive set of firn 3observations and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are considered as future scenarios. Our model suggests that the upper horizon of the Camp Century debris field – observed at a depth of 32 m in 2017 – will continue to be buried by persistent net accumulation over the next eighty years under all RCP scenarios. This horizon depth will be between 58 and 64 m in 2100, depending on the RCP scenario. We estimate a maximum meltwater percolation depth of 1.1 m under all RCP scenarios. We therefore find it extremely unlikely that surface meltwater interacts with the subsurface debris field at Camp Century before 2100 under all RCP scenarios. Camp Century’s future is representative of the firn area in northwestern Greenland, bound to shift from dry snow to a percolation regime. Our model suggests that 10 m firn temperatures at Camp Century will increase from −24.0°C in 1966 to −21.3, −20.0 and −18.6°C in 2100 under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. We reveal a previously unknown warm bias in air temperatures simulated at Camp Century by both RACMO2.3p2 and CanESM2 climate models which needs to be accounted for when using these models to predict melt, firn evolution and sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet. We also present novel in situ measurements of firn compaction rates, which indicate that about 25% of firn compaction of the top 62 m of firn occurs below 20 m depth. This highlights the importance of deep-firn compaction measurements for model evaluation and correction of altimetry products. Conference Object Greenland Ice Sheet Frontiers: Figshare Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Frontiers: Figshare |
op_collection_id |
ftfrontimediafig |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change greenland ice sheet firn surface mass balance accumulation camp century future climate |
spellingShingle |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change greenland ice sheet firn surface mass balance accumulation camp century future climate Baptiste Vandecrux William Colgan Anne M. Solgaard Jørgen Peder Steffensen Nanna B. Karlsson presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf |
topic_facet |
Solid Earth Sciences Climate Science Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified Exploration Geochemistry Inorganic Geochemistry Isotope Geochemistry Organic Geochemistry Geochemistry not elsewhere classified Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology Ore Deposit Petrology Palaeontology (incl. Palynology) Structural Geology Tectonics Volcanology Geology not elsewhere classified Seismology and Seismic Exploration Glaciology Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Quaternary Environments Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change greenland ice sheet firn surface mass balance accumulation camp century future climate |
description |
Camp Century is an American military base built in 1959 under the surface of the Greenland ice sheet and decommissioned in 1967. Here, we use outputs from RACMO2.3p2 and CanESM2 climate models, adjusted to meteorological observations, and a firn model to simulate the firn density and temperature at Camp Century between 1966 and 2100. The model output is evaluated against an extensive set of firn 3observations and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are considered as future scenarios. Our model suggests that the upper horizon of the Camp Century debris field – observed at a depth of 32 m in 2017 – will continue to be buried by persistent net accumulation over the next eighty years under all RCP scenarios. This horizon depth will be between 58 and 64 m in 2100, depending on the RCP scenario. We estimate a maximum meltwater percolation depth of 1.1 m under all RCP scenarios. We therefore find it extremely unlikely that surface meltwater interacts with the subsurface debris field at Camp Century before 2100 under all RCP scenarios. Camp Century’s future is representative of the firn area in northwestern Greenland, bound to shift from dry snow to a percolation regime. Our model suggests that 10 m firn temperatures at Camp Century will increase from −24.0°C in 1966 to −21.3, −20.0 and −18.6°C in 2100 under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. We reveal a previously unknown warm bias in air temperatures simulated at Camp Century by both RACMO2.3p2 and CanESM2 climate models which needs to be accounted for when using these models to predict melt, firn evolution and sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet. We also present novel in situ measurements of firn compaction rates, which indicate that about 25% of firn compaction of the top 62 m of firn occurs below 20 m depth. This highlights the importance of deep-firn compaction measurements for model evaluation and correction of altimetry products. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Baptiste Vandecrux William Colgan Anne M. Solgaard Jørgen Peder Steffensen Nanna B. Karlsson |
author_facet |
Baptiste Vandecrux William Colgan Anne M. Solgaard Jørgen Peder Steffensen Nanna B. Karlsson |
author_sort |
Baptiste Vandecrux |
title |
presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf |
title_short |
presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf |
title_full |
presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf |
title_fullStr |
presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf |
title_full_unstemmed |
presentation1_Firn Evolution at Camp Century, Greenland: 1966–2100.pdf |
title_sort |
presentation1_firn evolution at camp century, greenland: 1966–2100.pdf |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.578978.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/presentation/presentation1_Firn_Evolution_at_Camp_Century_Greenland_1966_2100_pdf/14261048 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
doi:10.3389/feart.2021.578978.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/presentation/presentation1_Firn_Evolution_at_Camp_Century_Greenland_1966_2100_pdf/14261048 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.578978.s001 |
_version_ |
1766016020672151552 |