A New Approach For Incorporating N-15 Isotopic Data Into Linear Inverse Ecosystem Models With Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling

• Other Authors: Stukel, Michael R. (authoraut), Decima, Moira (authoraut), Kelly, Thomas B. (authoraut)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A605574/datastream/TN/view/New%20Approach%20For%20Incorporating%20N-15%20Isotopic%20Data%20Into%20Linear%20Inverse%20Ecosystem%20Models%20With%20Markov%20Chain%20Monte%20Carlo%20Sampling.jpg

Oceanographic field programs often use delta N-15 biogeochemical measurements and in situ rate measurements to investigate nitrogen cycling and planktonic ecosystem structure. However, integrative modeling approaches capable of synthesizing these distinct measurement types are lacking. We develop a novel approach for incorporating delta N-15 isotopic data into existing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) random walk methods for solving linear inverse ecosystem models. We test the ability of this approach to recover food web indices (nitrate uptake, nitrogen fixation, zooplankton trophic level, and secondary production) derived from forward models simulating the planktonic ecosystems of the California Current and Amazon River Plume. We show that the MCMC with delta N-15 approach typically does a better job of recovering ecosystem structure than the standard MCMC or L-2 minimum norm (L2MN) approaches, and also outperforms an L2MN with delta N-15 approach. Furthermore, we find that the MCMC with delta N-15 approach is robust to the removal of input equations and hence is well suited to typical pelagic ecosystem studies for which the system is usually vastly under-constrained. Our approach is easily extendable for use with delta C-13 isotopic measurements or variable carbon:nitrogen stoichiometry. Keywords: fresh-water, information, equatorial pacific, ocean, carbon flows, food-web analysis, marine nitrogen-cycle, mixing models, trophic position, tropical north-atlantic Publication Note: The publisher’s version of record is available at https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0199123