Understanding and Predicting the Regional Sun-Hurricane Count Relationship

• Other Authors: Hodges, Robert E. (Robert Edward), 1981- (authoraut), Elsner, James (professor directing thesis), Hart, Robert (university representative), Mesev, Victor (committee member), Kobayashi, Tetsuo (committee member), Jagger, Thomas (committee member), Department of Geography (degree granting department), Florida State University (degree granting institution)
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University 2013
• Subjects: Geography; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A183758/datastream/TN/view/Understanding%20and%20Predicting%20the%20Regional%20Sun-Hurricane%20Count%20Relationship.jpg

North Atlantic hurricanes constitute a threat to both life and property. The warm seas found in tropical low-latitudes provide a breeding ground for hurricanes, with nearly continuous heat and moisture fluxes into near-surface air. Traditionally, the sun's role in hurricane climate studies is acknowledged as a time-marker for ocean heat content, with calendar date predicting hurricane frequency and intensity. However, a series of investigations into a different type of sun-hurricane relationship has uncovered a link between solar activity and hurricane intensity and frequency. High solar activity at a daily timescale is understood to weaken hurricanes in the southwest Atlantic yet correspond to increased hurricane intensity in the southeast Atlantic. At a seasonal timescale, high solar activity is shown to correspond with fewer U.S.-landfalling hurricanes. A gap in the knowledge exists on how and where solar activity influences seasonal hurricane frequency over and within the North Atlantic basin. This study is quantitative featuring exploratory analysis and inferential modeling, with diagnosis and prediction of the sun-hurricane count relationship over space being the primary contribution to science and society. It is carried out via exploratory data analysis and statistical modeling. Hurricane and climate data are binned in equal-area hexagon regions. Count differences for periods of high solar activity (i.e, high sunspot number) feature fewer hurricanes across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and along the eastern seaboard of the United States when sunspots are numerous. In contrast, fewer hurricanes are observed in the central North Atlantic when sunspots are few. The sun-hurricane connection is as important as the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation toward statistically explaining regional hurricane occurrences. Regression results indicate a 30\% reduction in probability of annual hurricane occurrence for southeastern Cuba, the southern Bahama islands, Haiti, and Jamaica when the September sunspot number is 115 ...