Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from numerical models. Each model in the suite of models used by forecasters has its own strengths and weaknesses. Some research has investigated the skill of the various models with respect to track, with the assumption that a TC already exists...
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Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University
2012
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ftfloridasu:oai:diginole.lib.fsu.edu:fsu_182899 2024-06-09T07:48:12+00:00 Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models Halperin, Daniel J. (authoraut) Fuelberg, Henry E. (professor directing thesis) Hart, Robert E. (committee member) Sura, Philip G. (committee member) Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (degree granting department) Florida State University (degree granting institution) 2012 1 online resource computer https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A182899/datastream/TN/view/Evaluating%20Tropical%20Cyclogenesis%20Forecasts%20from%20Four%20Global%20Numerical%20Models.jpg English eng eng Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University fsu:182899 (IID) FSU_migr_etd-4887 (URL) http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_etd-4887 https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A182899/datastream/TN/view/Evaluating%20Tropical%20Cyclogenesis%20Forecasts%20from%20Four%20Global%20Numerical%20Models.jpg This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. Earth sciences Oceanography Atmospheric sciences Geophysics Text 2012 ftfloridasu 2024-05-10T08:08:14Z Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from numerical models. Each model in the suite of models used by forecasters has its own strengths and weaknesses. Some research has investigated the skill of the various models with respect to track, with the assumption that a TC already exists. However, little research has considered how well (or poorly) global models forecast TC genesis. Some studies have considered the Western North Pacific basin, but there have been numerous upgrades to the numerical models since then. A few studies examined the North Atlantic basin, but they analyzed a relatively small sample of storms. This paper will analyze TC genesis forecasts in four global models (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET) over seven seasons (2004-2010) in the North Atlantic basin. All model indicated TCs will be counted and classified as a hit, false alarm, or an incorrect timing event. We will also consider miss events. The method of finding TCs in the model environment is based on a mixture of methods used previously in the literature. Hits are defined as when a model predicts genesis within 24 hours of the National Hurricane Center Best-Track genesis time and within 5° latitude and longitude of the Best-Track genesis location. A false alarm is defined as a model indicated TC that never develops. An incorrect timing event is defined as when the model is predicting genesis at a location where a TC already exists in the Best-Track, but the timing of genesis is off (i.e., more than 24 hours from the Best-Track genesis time). Results will show which model best predicted TC genesis (with the acknowledgement that the "best" model can change from year to year) and whether or not model performance has improved over time. Basic statistics will be conducted on the results. The results will be subdivided into geographical regions and analyzed spatially and temporally. This provides insight regarding regions where a model performs best (or worst) and whether forecast skill decreases with increasing forecast hour, as one ... Text North Atlantic Florida State University: DigiNole Commons Pacific |
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English |
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Earth sciences Oceanography Atmospheric sciences Geophysics |
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Earth sciences Oceanography Atmospheric sciences Geophysics Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models |
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Earth sciences Oceanography Atmospheric sciences Geophysics |
description |
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from numerical models. Each model in the suite of models used by forecasters has its own strengths and weaknesses. Some research has investigated the skill of the various models with respect to track, with the assumption that a TC already exists. However, little research has considered how well (or poorly) global models forecast TC genesis. Some studies have considered the Western North Pacific basin, but there have been numerous upgrades to the numerical models since then. A few studies examined the North Atlantic basin, but they analyzed a relatively small sample of storms. This paper will analyze TC genesis forecasts in four global models (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET) over seven seasons (2004-2010) in the North Atlantic basin. All model indicated TCs will be counted and classified as a hit, false alarm, or an incorrect timing event. We will also consider miss events. The method of finding TCs in the model environment is based on a mixture of methods used previously in the literature. Hits are defined as when a model predicts genesis within 24 hours of the National Hurricane Center Best-Track genesis time and within 5° latitude and longitude of the Best-Track genesis location. A false alarm is defined as a model indicated TC that never develops. An incorrect timing event is defined as when the model is predicting genesis at a location where a TC already exists in the Best-Track, but the timing of genesis is off (i.e., more than 24 hours from the Best-Track genesis time). Results will show which model best predicted TC genesis (with the acknowledgement that the "best" model can change from year to year) and whether or not model performance has improved over time. Basic statistics will be conducted on the results. The results will be subdivided into geographical regions and analyzed spatially and temporally. This provides insight regarding regions where a model performs best (or worst) and whether forecast skill decreases with increasing forecast hour, as one ... |
author2 |
Halperin, Daniel J. (authoraut) Fuelberg, Henry E. (professor directing thesis) Hart, Robert E. (committee member) Sura, Philip G. (committee member) Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (degree granting department) Florida State University (degree granting institution) |
format |
Text |
title |
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models |
title_short |
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models |
title_full |
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models |
title_sort |
evaluating tropical cyclogenesis forecasts from four global numerical models |
publisher |
Tallahassee, Florida: Florida State University |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A182899/datastream/TN/view/Evaluating%20Tropical%20Cyclogenesis%20Forecasts%20from%20Four%20Global%20Numerical%20Models.jpg |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
fsu:182899 (IID) FSU_migr_etd-4887 (URL) http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_etd-4887 https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3A182899/datastream/TN/view/Evaluating%20Tropical%20Cyclogenesis%20Forecasts%20from%20Four%20Global%20Numerical%20Models.jpg |
op_rights |
This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. |
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1801379801916768256 |