Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models

Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) warmed in the early 20th century, experienced a mid-century lull, and warmed again steadily until 1997. Observations at the turn of the 21st century have revealed another period of quiescent warming of GMSTs from 1998 to 2012, thus prompting the notion of a gl...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Vazquez, Heather
Format: Text
Language:unknown
Published: FIU Digital Commons 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3737
https://doi.org/10.25148/etd.FIDC006899
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/context/etd/article/5074/viewcontent/FIDC006899.pdf
id ftfloridaintuniv:oai:digitalcommons.fiu.edu:etd-5074
record_format openpolar
spelling ftfloridaintuniv:oai:digitalcommons.fiu.edu:etd-5074 2023-06-11T04:09:54+02:00 Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models Vazquez, Heather 2018-06-22T07:00:00Z application/pdf https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3737 https://doi.org/10.25148/etd.FIDC006899 https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/context/etd/article/5074/viewcontent/FIDC006899.pdf unknown FIU Digital Commons https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3737 doi:10.25148/etd.FIDC006899 https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/context/etd/article/5074/viewcontent/FIDC006899.pdf FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Climate Change Natural Variability Modeling Study Atmospheric Sciences Climate Meteorology text 2018 ftfloridaintuniv https://doi.org/10.25148/etd.FIDC006899 2023-05-04T17:42:42Z Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) warmed in the early 20th century, experienced a mid-century lull, and warmed again steadily until 1997. Observations at the turn of the 21st century have revealed another period of quiescent warming of GMSTs from 1998 to 2012, thus prompting the notion of a global warming “hiatus”. The warming hiatus occurred concurrently with steadily increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, and retreating arctic sea ice. The occurrence of the warming hiatus suggests that natural variability continues to be a sizable contributor to modern climate change and implies that energy is rearranged or changed within the climate system. Much of the scientific research conducted over the last decade has attempted to identify which modes of natural variability may be contributing to the GMST signal in the presence of anthropogenic warming. Many of these studies concluded that natural variability, operating in the global oceans were the largest contributors to GMST. What remains unclear is how oceanic variability and its contribution to GMST may change on a warmer globe as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. Our research includes diagnostic analyses of the available observational surface temperature estimates and novel state-of-the-art climate model experiments from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our analyses seek to understand how the natural modes of variability within the ocean will change under different warming scenarios. Utilizing simulations forced with observed pre-industrial and historical greenhouse gas emissions in combination with several future warming simulations, we quantify the probability of similar “hiatus-like” periods occurring on a warmer globe. To that end employ various metrics and detrending techniques including EOF decomposition, running climatologies, along with linear and nonlinear trends to elucidate how natural variability changes over time. We also examine the changing influence of natural ... Text Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice Florida International University: Digital Commons@FIU Arctic
institution Open Polar
collection Florida International University: Digital Commons@FIU
op_collection_id ftfloridaintuniv
language unknown
topic Climate Change
Natural Variability
Modeling Study
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate
Meteorology
spellingShingle Climate Change
Natural Variability
Modeling Study
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate
Meteorology
Vazquez, Heather
Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models
topic_facet Climate Change
Natural Variability
Modeling Study
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate
Meteorology
description Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) warmed in the early 20th century, experienced a mid-century lull, and warmed again steadily until 1997. Observations at the turn of the 21st century have revealed another period of quiescent warming of GMSTs from 1998 to 2012, thus prompting the notion of a global warming “hiatus”. The warming hiatus occurred concurrently with steadily increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, and retreating arctic sea ice. The occurrence of the warming hiatus suggests that natural variability continues to be a sizable contributor to modern climate change and implies that energy is rearranged or changed within the climate system. Much of the scientific research conducted over the last decade has attempted to identify which modes of natural variability may be contributing to the GMST signal in the presence of anthropogenic warming. Many of these studies concluded that natural variability, operating in the global oceans were the largest contributors to GMST. What remains unclear is how oceanic variability and its contribution to GMST may change on a warmer globe as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. Our research includes diagnostic analyses of the available observational surface temperature estimates and novel state-of-the-art climate model experiments from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our analyses seek to understand how the natural modes of variability within the ocean will change under different warming scenarios. Utilizing simulations forced with observed pre-industrial and historical greenhouse gas emissions in combination with several future warming simulations, we quantify the probability of similar “hiatus-like” periods occurring on a warmer globe. To that end employ various metrics and detrending techniques including EOF decomposition, running climatologies, along with linear and nonlinear trends to elucidate how natural variability changes over time. We also examine the changing influence of natural ...
format Text
author Vazquez, Heather
author_facet Vazquez, Heather
author_sort Vazquez, Heather
title Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models
title_short Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models
title_full Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models
title_fullStr Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models
title_full_unstemmed Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability on a Warming Globe in CMIP5 Models
title_sort evaluating changes to natural variability on a warming globe in cmip5 models
publisher FIU Digital Commons
publishDate 2018
url https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3737
https://doi.org/10.25148/etd.FIDC006899
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/context/etd/article/5074/viewcontent/FIDC006899.pdf
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Climate change
Global warming
Sea ice
genre_facet Arctic
Climate change
Global warming
Sea ice
op_source FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
op_relation https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3737
doi:10.25148/etd.FIDC006899
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/context/etd/article/5074/viewcontent/FIDC006899.pdf
op_doi https://doi.org/10.25148/etd.FIDC006899
_version_ 1768383930122108928