Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland
The tidal record from the Reykjavik Harbour in Iceland is analysed for extremes. For this analysis the annual maxima of recorded high tide of the 37 recorded years are used. In addition predicted high tides from the calendar years 1-2950 are used. This number of predicted years is considered suffici...
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ftfloridaclaojs:oai:ojs.journals.fcla.edu:article/79835 2023-05-15T16:48:30+02:00 Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland Eliasson, Jonas 2012-10-04 application/pdf http://journals.fcla.edu/jcr/article/view/79835 eng eng Journal of Coastal Research http://journals.fcla.edu/jcr/article/view/79835/77102 Journal of Coastal Research; Vol 12, No 1 (1996): Journal of Coastal Research 0749-0208 Geoscience; Geography; Ocean Science; Oceanography; Marine Science; Coastal Geology; Earth and Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article 2012 ftfloridaclaojs 2016-11-23T12:09:10Z The tidal record from the Reykjavik Harbour in Iceland is analysed for extremes. For this analysis the annual maxima of recorded high tide of the 37 recorded years are used. In addition predicted high tides from the calendar years 1-2950 are used. This number of predicted years is considered sufficient data for a fairly accurate probability distribution of the astronomical tide, but the prediction is based on astronomical constituents. The astronomical tide deviates from the recorded, and three possible deviations are discussed, two deviation series that are differences of simultaneous values and one that is differences of annual maxima. It is found that a cross-correlation has to exist between the recorded and predicted series, if a stochastic model, expressing the recorded value as the sum of the prediction and the deviation, is to be applied. One of the deviation series fulfils this requirement, its recorded and predicted series are correlated. The deviation can be separated in two parts, one correlated to the prediction and another independent of the prediction. Using this, a probability integral is derived that gives the expected value of the tidal surge level as a function of return period. This result is compared to historical flood record, and it is found that the results are reliable for return periods 30-100 years. Finally, it is recommended that a hydrodynamic computational model of the tidal motion is constructed in order to investigate the tidal surge from rare meteorological situations that may not be represented in the 37 years of record. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Florida Online Journals (FloridaOJ) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Florida Online Journals (FloridaOJ) |
op_collection_id |
ftfloridaclaojs |
language |
English |
topic |
Geoscience; Geography; Ocean Science; Oceanography; Marine Science; Coastal Geology; Earth and Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Geoscience; Geography; Ocean Science; Oceanography; Marine Science; Coastal Geology; Earth and Environmental Sciences Eliasson, Jonas Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland |
topic_facet |
Geoscience; Geography; Ocean Science; Oceanography; Marine Science; Coastal Geology; Earth and Environmental Sciences |
description |
The tidal record from the Reykjavik Harbour in Iceland is analysed for extremes. For this analysis the annual maxima of recorded high tide of the 37 recorded years are used. In addition predicted high tides from the calendar years 1-2950 are used. This number of predicted years is considered sufficient data for a fairly accurate probability distribution of the astronomical tide, but the prediction is based on astronomical constituents. The astronomical tide deviates from the recorded, and three possible deviations are discussed, two deviation series that are differences of simultaneous values and one that is differences of annual maxima. It is found that a cross-correlation has to exist between the recorded and predicted series, if a stochastic model, expressing the recorded value as the sum of the prediction and the deviation, is to be applied. One of the deviation series fulfils this requirement, its recorded and predicted series are correlated. The deviation can be separated in two parts, one correlated to the prediction and another independent of the prediction. Using this, a probability integral is derived that gives the expected value of the tidal surge level as a function of return period. This result is compared to historical flood record, and it is found that the results are reliable for return periods 30-100 years. Finally, it is recommended that a hydrodynamic computational model of the tidal motion is constructed in order to investigate the tidal surge from rare meteorological situations that may not be represented in the 37 years of record. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eliasson, Jonas |
author_facet |
Eliasson, Jonas |
author_sort |
Eliasson, Jonas |
title |
Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland |
title_short |
Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland |
title_full |
Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probability of Tidal Surge Levels in Reykjavik, Iceland |
title_sort |
probability of tidal surge levels in reykjavik, iceland |
publisher |
Journal of Coastal Research |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://journals.fcla.edu/jcr/article/view/79835 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Journal of Coastal Research; Vol 12, No 1 (1996): Journal of Coastal Research 0749-0208 |
op_relation |
http://journals.fcla.edu/jcr/article/view/79835/77102 |
_version_ |
1766038587622555648 |