Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century

The chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL has been used to evaluate the contributions of the main anthropogenic factors to the simulated changes of ozone and stratospheric dynamics during the 21st century. As the main anthropogenic factors we consider the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse ga...

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Main Authors: Zubov, V., Rozanov, Eugene, Egorova, Tatiana, Karol, I., Schmutz, Werner
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus 2013
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/67920
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000067920
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spelling ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/67920 2023-08-20T04:09:46+02:00 Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century Zubov, V. Rozanov, Eugene Egorova, Tatiana Karol, I. Schmutz, Werner 2013 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/67920 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000067920 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000318941300015 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/67920 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000067920 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13 (9) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2013 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/6792010.3929/ethz-b-00006792010.5194/acp-13-4697-2013 2023-07-30T23:50:56Z The chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL has been used to evaluate the contributions of the main anthropogenic factors to the simulated changes of ozone and stratospheric dynamics during the 21st century. As the main anthropogenic factors we consider the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases (GHG), ozone depleting substances (ODS) and sea surface temperature and sea ice (SST/SI). The latter is considered here as an independent factor because the majority of the CCMs prescribe its evolution. We have performed three sets of "time slice" numerical experiments for the years 2000, 2050, and 2100 taking into account all factors separately and all together. The total column ozone increase during the first half of the 21st century is caused by the ODS, especially in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the tropics and the extra tropical region of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) the SST/SI forcing plays a very important role in the evolution of atmospheric ozone during the second half of the 21st century. The GHG affect the temperature and ozone mainly in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere of the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). In the lower tropical stratosphere of the NH, the long-term changes of the temperature, zonal wind and the meridional circulation are controlled mainly by the SST/SI. The strong contribution of the SST/SI to the ozone and circulation changes in the future implies that some differences between the results by different CCMs could be caused by the applied SST/SI rather than by the CCM's deficiencies. We suggest taking this issue into account for the planning of the future model evaluation campaigns. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367 Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice ETH Zürich Research Collection
institution Open Polar
collection ETH Zürich Research Collection
op_collection_id ftethz
language English
description The chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL has been used to evaluate the contributions of the main anthropogenic factors to the simulated changes of ozone and stratospheric dynamics during the 21st century. As the main anthropogenic factors we consider the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases (GHG), ozone depleting substances (ODS) and sea surface temperature and sea ice (SST/SI). The latter is considered here as an independent factor because the majority of the CCMs prescribe its evolution. We have performed three sets of "time slice" numerical experiments for the years 2000, 2050, and 2100 taking into account all factors separately and all together. The total column ozone increase during the first half of the 21st century is caused by the ODS, especially in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the tropics and the extra tropical region of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) the SST/SI forcing plays a very important role in the evolution of atmospheric ozone during the second half of the 21st century. The GHG affect the temperature and ozone mainly in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere of the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). In the lower tropical stratosphere of the NH, the long-term changes of the temperature, zonal wind and the meridional circulation are controlled mainly by the SST/SI. The strong contribution of the SST/SI to the ozone and circulation changes in the future implies that some differences between the results by different CCMs could be caused by the applied SST/SI rather than by the CCM's deficiencies. We suggest taking this issue into account for the planning of the future model evaluation campaigns. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Zubov, V.
Rozanov, Eugene
Egorova, Tatiana
Karol, I.
Schmutz, Werner
spellingShingle Zubov, V.
Rozanov, Eugene
Egorova, Tatiana
Karol, I.
Schmutz, Werner
Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
author_facet Zubov, V.
Rozanov, Eugene
Egorova, Tatiana
Karol, I.
Schmutz, Werner
author_sort Zubov, V.
title Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
title_short Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
title_full Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
title_fullStr Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
title_full_unstemmed Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
title_sort role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
publisher Copernicus
publishDate 2013
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/67920
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000067920
genre Sea ice
genre_facet Sea ice
op_source Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13 (9)
op_relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000318941300015
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/67920
doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000067920
op_rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
op_doi https://doi.org/20.500.11850/6792010.3929/ethz-b-00006792010.5194/acp-13-4697-2013
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