Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size
Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical-statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab d...
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Cambridge University Press
2024
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/664018 2024-06-02T07:55:22+00:00 Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan id_orcid:0 000-0001-8931-752X 2024 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/664018 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000664018 en eng Cambridge University Press info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/aog.2024.3 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/001174233900001 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/664018 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000664018 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Annals of Glaciology Avalanches snow snow mechanics info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2024 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/66401810.3929/ethz-b-00066401810.1017/aog.2024.3 2024-05-06T13:43:36Z Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical-statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab depth maps on a plane fictional slope based on Gaussian Random Fields (GRF) for a specific set of mean, variance and correlation length. For each GRF, we derive analytically the Skier Propagation Index (SPI). We then simulate multiple skier tracks and computed the probability based on the number of skier hits where SPI is below 1. Finally, we use a depth-averaged material point method to evaluate the possible avalanche size for given slab depth variations. The results of this analysis show that large correlation lengths and small variances lead to a lower probability of skier-triggering as it reduces the size and the number of areas with low slab depth. Then, we show the effect of skiing style and skier group size on skier-triggering probability. Spatial variability also affects the possible avalanche size by adding stress fluctuation causing early or late tensile failure. Finally, we demonstrate with our models the well-known relationship between the probability and the size in avalanche forecasting. ISSN:0260-3055 ISSN:1727-5644 Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology ETH Zürich Research Collection |
institution |
Open Polar |
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ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
topic |
Avalanches snow snow mechanics |
spellingShingle |
Avalanches snow snow mechanics Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan id_orcid:0 000-0001-8931-752X Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
topic_facet |
Avalanches snow snow mechanics |
description |
Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical-statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab depth maps on a plane fictional slope based on Gaussian Random Fields (GRF) for a specific set of mean, variance and correlation length. For each GRF, we derive analytically the Skier Propagation Index (SPI). We then simulate multiple skier tracks and computed the probability based on the number of skier hits where SPI is below 1. Finally, we use a depth-averaged material point method to evaluate the possible avalanche size for given slab depth variations. The results of this analysis show that large correlation lengths and small variances lead to a lower probability of skier-triggering as it reduces the size and the number of areas with low slab depth. Then, we show the effect of skiing style and skier group size on skier-triggering probability. Spatial variability also affects the possible avalanche size by adding stress fluctuation causing early or late tensile failure. Finally, we demonstrate with our models the well-known relationship between the probability and the size in avalanche forecasting. ISSN:0260-3055 ISSN:1727-5644 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan id_orcid:0 000-0001-8931-752X |
author_facet |
Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan id_orcid:0 000-0001-8931-752X |
author_sort |
Meloche, Francis |
title |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_short |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_full |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_fullStr |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_sort |
influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/664018 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000664018 |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/aog.2024.3 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/001174233900001 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/664018 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000664018 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/66401810.3929/ethz-b-00066401810.1017/aog.2024.3 |
_version_ |
1800748138086006784 |