Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate
The effects of global warming are strongly amplified in the Arctic, causing rapidly rising temperatures and ongoing dramatic loss of sea ice, which itself is subject to large interannual variability. We investigate changes in seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation, its variability and extremes,...
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/613323 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000613323 |
id |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/613323 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/613323 2024-02-11T10:00:03+01:00 Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate Hartmuth, Katharina Papritz, Lukas id_orcid:0 000-0002-2047-9544 Boettcher, Maxi Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 2023-04-28 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/613323 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000613323 en eng American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022GL102349 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000999811900001 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/787652 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/613323 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000613323 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2023 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/61332310.3929/ethz-b-00061332310.1029/2022GL102349 2024-01-22T00:51:58Z The effects of global warming are strongly amplified in the Arctic, causing rapidly rising temperatures and ongoing dramatic loss of sea ice, which itself is subject to large interannual variability. We investigate changes in seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation, its variability and extremes, using large-ensemble climate model data with a representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing scenario for historical (S2000) and end-of-century projections (S2100). Our results reveal regionally and seasonally dependent changes in Arctic interannual temperature and precipitation variability that are strongly linked to sea-ice loss. We show a doubling in precipitation variability over the Arctic Ocean and a significant reduction in temperature variability in the Barents Sea. Extremely warm seasons in S2000 rank among the coldest seasons or become unrealistic in S2100. We further show the key role of large-scale weather systems for shaping seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic which persists under climate warming. ISSN:0094-8276 ISSN:1944-8007 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Global warming Sea ice ETH Zürich Research Collection Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
The effects of global warming are strongly amplified in the Arctic, causing rapidly rising temperatures and ongoing dramatic loss of sea ice, which itself is subject to large interannual variability. We investigate changes in seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation, its variability and extremes, using large-ensemble climate model data with a representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing scenario for historical (S2000) and end-of-century projections (S2100). Our results reveal regionally and seasonally dependent changes in Arctic interannual temperature and precipitation variability that are strongly linked to sea-ice loss. We show a doubling in precipitation variability over the Arctic Ocean and a significant reduction in temperature variability in the Barents Sea. Extremely warm seasons in S2000 rank among the coldest seasons or become unrealistic in S2100. We further show the key role of large-scale weather systems for shaping seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic which persists under climate warming. ISSN:0094-8276 ISSN:1944-8007 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hartmuth, Katharina Papritz, Lukas id_orcid:0 000-0002-2047-9544 Boettcher, Maxi Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 |
spellingShingle |
Hartmuth, Katharina Papritz, Lukas id_orcid:0 000-0002-2047-9544 Boettcher, Maxi Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
author_facet |
Hartmuth, Katharina Papritz, Lukas id_orcid:0 000-0002-2047-9544 Boettcher, Maxi Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 |
author_sort |
Hartmuth, Katharina |
title |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_short |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_full |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_sort |
arctic seasonal variability and extremes, and the role of weather systems in a changing climate |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/613323 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000613323 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022GL102349 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000999811900001 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/787652 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/613323 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000613323 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/61332310.3929/ethz-b-00061332310.1029/2022GL102349 |
_version_ |
1790595768063623168 |