Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower
Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)-known as Asia's water tower-has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress1,2. However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terr...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/603060 2023-09-05T13:21:34+02:00 Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel id_orcid:0 000-0003-3417-4570 Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang 2023-03-02 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/603060 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000603060 en eng Nature info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000991385800020 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Projekte MINT/184634 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/603060 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000603060 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Nature, 615 (7950) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2023 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/60306010.3929/ethz-b-00060306010.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 2023-08-20T23:48:49Z Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)-known as Asia's water tower-has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress1,2. However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003-2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA's mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP's TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020-2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress. ISSN:0028-0836 ISSN:1476-4687 Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic ETH Zürich Research Collection |
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Open Polar |
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ETH Zürich Research Collection |
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ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)-known as Asia's water tower-has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress1,2. However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003-2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA's mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP's TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020-2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress. ISSN:0028-0836 ISSN:1476-4687 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel id_orcid:0 000-0003-3417-4570 Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang |
spellingShingle |
Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel id_orcid:0 000-0003-3417-4570 Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
author_facet |
Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel id_orcid:0 000-0003-3417-4570 Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang |
author_sort |
Zhang, Qiang |
title |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_short |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_full |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_fullStr |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_full_unstemmed |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_sort |
oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of asia's water tower |
publisher |
Nature |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/603060 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000603060 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Nature, 615 (7950) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000991385800020 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Projekte MINT/184634 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/603060 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000603060 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/60306010.3929/ethz-b-00060306010.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 |
_version_ |
1776202173691985920 |