Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts
This study investigates how warm conveyor belts (WCBs) will change in a future climate. WCBs are strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are responsible for most of their precipitation. In conjunction with the cloud formation, latent heat is released, which has an impact on the...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/600372 2024-02-11T10:05:14+01:00 Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts Joos, Hanna Sprenger, Michael Binder, Hanin Beyerle, Urs id_orcid:0 000-0002-6464-0838 Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 2023-01-24 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/600372 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000600372 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Projekte MINT/185049 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/787652 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/600372 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000600372 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4 (1) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2023 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/60037210.3929/ethz-b-00060037210.5194/wcd-4-133-2023 2024-01-15T00:50:56Z This study investigates how warm conveyor belts (WCBs) will change in a future climate. WCBs are strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are responsible for most of their precipitation. In conjunction with the cloud formation, latent heat is released, which has an impact on the potential vorticity distribution and therefore on the atmospheric circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. Because of these and other impacts of WCBs, it is of great importance to investigate changes in their frequencies, regions of occurrence, and physical characteristics in a warmer climate. To this aim, future climate simulations (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 - RCP8.5 - scenario; 2091-2100) are performed with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and compared to present-day climate (1991-1999). Trajectories are calculated based on 6-hourly 3D wind fields, and WCBs are identified as trajectories that ascend at least 600 hPa in 2 d. WCBs are represented reasonably well in terms of location and occurrence frequency compared to WCBs in the ERA-Interim reanalyses. In a future climate, WCB inflow regions in the North Pacific are systematically shifted northward in winter, which is in agreement with the northward shift of the storm track in this region. In the North Atlantic, increased frequencies are discernible in the southwest and there is a decrease to the south of Iceland. Finally, in the Southern Hemisphere, WCB frequencies increase in the South Atlantic in both seasons and to the east of South Africa and the Indian Ocean in June-July-August (JJA). These changes are partly consistent with corresponding changes in the occurrence frequencies of extratropical cyclones, i.e. the driving weather systems of WCBs. Changes are also found in the WCB characteristics, which have implications for WCB impacts in a future climate. The increase in inflow moisture in the different regions and seasons - ∼23 %-33 % (∼14 %-20 %) in winter (summer) - leads to (i) an increase in WCB-related precipitation ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland North Atlantic ETH Zürich Research Collection Indian Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
This study investigates how warm conveyor belts (WCBs) will change in a future climate. WCBs are strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are responsible for most of their precipitation. In conjunction with the cloud formation, latent heat is released, which has an impact on the potential vorticity distribution and therefore on the atmospheric circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. Because of these and other impacts of WCBs, it is of great importance to investigate changes in their frequencies, regions of occurrence, and physical characteristics in a warmer climate. To this aim, future climate simulations (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 - RCP8.5 - scenario; 2091-2100) are performed with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and compared to present-day climate (1991-1999). Trajectories are calculated based on 6-hourly 3D wind fields, and WCBs are identified as trajectories that ascend at least 600 hPa in 2 d. WCBs are represented reasonably well in terms of location and occurrence frequency compared to WCBs in the ERA-Interim reanalyses. In a future climate, WCB inflow regions in the North Pacific are systematically shifted northward in winter, which is in agreement with the northward shift of the storm track in this region. In the North Atlantic, increased frequencies are discernible in the southwest and there is a decrease to the south of Iceland. Finally, in the Southern Hemisphere, WCB frequencies increase in the South Atlantic in both seasons and to the east of South Africa and the Indian Ocean in June-July-August (JJA). These changes are partly consistent with corresponding changes in the occurrence frequencies of extratropical cyclones, i.e. the driving weather systems of WCBs. Changes are also found in the WCB characteristics, which have implications for WCB impacts in a future climate. The increase in inflow moisture in the different regions and seasons - ∼23 %-33 % (∼14 %-20 %) in winter (summer) - leads to (i) an increase in WCB-related precipitation ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Joos, Hanna Sprenger, Michael Binder, Hanin Beyerle, Urs id_orcid:0 000-0002-6464-0838 Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 |
spellingShingle |
Joos, Hanna Sprenger, Michael Binder, Hanin Beyerle, Urs id_orcid:0 000-0002-6464-0838 Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts |
author_facet |
Joos, Hanna Sprenger, Michael Binder, Hanin Beyerle, Urs id_orcid:0 000-0002-6464-0838 Wernli, Heini id_orcid:0 000-0001-9674-4837 |
author_sort |
Joos, Hanna |
title |
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts |
title_short |
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts |
title_full |
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts |
title_fullStr |
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - Part 1: Climatology and impacts |
title_sort |
warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations - part 1: climatology and impacts |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/600372 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000600372 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
Iceland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Iceland North Atlantic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4 (1) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/wcd-4-133-2023 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Projekte MINT/185049 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/787652 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/600372 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000600372 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/60037210.3929/ethz-b-00060037210.5194/wcd-4-133-2023 |
_version_ |
1790602144705937408 |