Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change
Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/572444 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000572444 |
id |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/572444 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/572444 2023-05-15T17:55:19+02:00 Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K. 2022-09 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/572444 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000572444 en eng IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000854076200001 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/572444 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000572444 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International CC-BY Environmental Research Letters, 17 (9) permafrost global warming detection and attribution info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/572444 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000572444 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 2023-02-13T01:12:21Z Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318 Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost ETH Zürich Research Collection |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost global warming detection and attribution |
spellingShingle |
permafrost global warming detection and attribution Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K. Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
topic_facet |
permafrost global warming detection and attribution |
description |
Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K. |
author_facet |
Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K. |
author_sort |
Gudmundsson, Lukas |
title |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_short |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_fullStr |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_sort |
attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/572444 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000572444 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, 17 (9) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000854076200001 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/572444 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000572444 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/572444 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000572444 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 |
_version_ |
1766163244034031616 |