Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19
To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based o...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/543331 2023-08-20T04:07:28+02:00 Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner 2022-05-09 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/543331 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000543331 en eng Nature info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000792845300014 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Eccellenza/186932 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/543331 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000543331 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Scientific Reports, 12 Epidemiology Public health info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/54333110.3929/ethz-b-00054333110.1038/s41598-022-11362-x 2023-07-30T23:54:41Z To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n=40 countries, we estimate country-specific differences in the effectiveness of NPIs via a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Our estimates reveal substantial variation between countries, indicating that NPIs have been more effective in some countries (e. g. Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland) as compared to others (e. g. Singapore, South Africa, and France). We then explain differences in the effectiveness of NPIs through 12 country characteristics (e. g. population age, urbanization, employment, etc.). A positive association with country-specific effectiveness of NPIs was found for government effectiveness, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population ages 65+, and health expenditures. Conversely, a negative association with effectiveness of NPIs was found for the share of informal employment, average household size and population density. Overall, the wealth and demographic structure of a country can explain variation in the effectiveness of NPIs. ISSN:2045-2322 Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland ETH Zürich Research Collection New Zealand |
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ETH Zürich Research Collection |
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English |
topic |
Epidemiology Public health |
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Epidemiology Public health Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
topic_facet |
Epidemiology Public health |
description |
To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n=40 countries, we estimate country-specific differences in the effectiveness of NPIs via a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Our estimates reveal substantial variation between countries, indicating that NPIs have been more effective in some countries (e. g. Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland) as compared to others (e. g. Singapore, South Africa, and France). We then explain differences in the effectiveness of NPIs through 12 country characteristics (e. g. population age, urbanization, employment, etc.). A positive association with country-specific effectiveness of NPIs was found for government effectiveness, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population ages 65+, and health expenditures. Conversely, a negative association with effectiveness of NPIs was found for the share of informal employment, average household size and population density. Overall, the wealth and demographic structure of a country can explain variation in the effectiveness of NPIs. ISSN:2045-2322 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner |
author_facet |
Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner |
author_sort |
Banholzer, Nicolas |
title |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_short |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_full |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_fullStr |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_sort |
estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during covid-19 |
publisher |
Nature |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/543331 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000543331 |
geographic |
New Zealand |
geographic_facet |
New Zealand |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Scientific Reports, 12 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000792845300014 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Eccellenza/186932 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/543331 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000543331 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/54333110.3929/ethz-b-00054333110.1038/s41598-022-11362-x |
_version_ |
1774719123263062016 |