Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence
Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method an...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/484734 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000484734 |
id |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/484734 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/484734 2023-07-23T04:17:54+02:00 Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje Van Oldenborgh, Geert J. Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias id_orcid:0 000-0002-0057-4878 Seneviratne, Sonia I. id_orcid:0 000-0001-9528-2917 Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga 2021-05-06 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/484734 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000484734 en eng Springer info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Ambizione/174128 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/484734 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000484734 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Climatic Change, 166 (1-2) Extreme event attribution Heatwave Siberia Extremes Multi-model Rapid attribution info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2021 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/48473410.3929/ethz-b-00048473410.1007/s10584-021-03052-w 2023-07-02T23:50:40Z Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible. ISSN:0165-0009 ISSN:1573-1480 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Siberia ETH Zürich Research Collection Arctic Verkhoyansk ENVELOPE(133.400,133.400,67.544,67.544) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
topic |
Extreme event attribution Heatwave Siberia Extremes Multi-model Rapid attribution |
spellingShingle |
Extreme event attribution Heatwave Siberia Extremes Multi-model Rapid attribution Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje Van Oldenborgh, Geert J. Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias id_orcid:0 000-0002-0057-4878 Seneviratne, Sonia I. id_orcid:0 000-0001-9528-2917 Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
topic_facet |
Extreme event attribution Heatwave Siberia Extremes Multi-model Rapid attribution |
description |
Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible. ISSN:0165-0009 ISSN:1573-1480 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje Van Oldenborgh, Geert J. Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias id_orcid:0 000-0002-0057-4878 Seneviratne, Sonia I. id_orcid:0 000-0001-9528-2917 Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga |
author_facet |
Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje Van Oldenborgh, Geert J. Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias id_orcid:0 000-0002-0057-4878 Seneviratne, Sonia I. id_orcid:0 000-0001-9528-2917 Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga |
author_sort |
Ciavarella, Andrew |
title |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_short |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_full |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_fullStr |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_sort |
prolonged siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/484734 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000484734 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(133.400,133.400,67.544,67.544) |
geographic |
Arctic Verkhoyansk |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Verkhoyansk |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Siberia |
op_source |
Climatic Change, 166 (1-2) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF/Ambizione/174128 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/484734 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000484734 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/48473410.3929/ethz-b-00048473410.1007/s10584-021-03052-w |
_version_ |
1772179991708041216 |