Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/471295 2023-08-20T04:03:41+02:00 Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Thonicke, Kirsten 2021-02 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 en eng IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000616991000001 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Environmental Research Letters, 16 (2) permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2021 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/47129510.3929/ethz-b-00047129510.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 2023-07-30T23:53:15Z Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arkhangelsk Chukotka Climate change Global warming Ice khanty nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia ETH Zürich Research Collection Arctic Magadan ENVELOPE(150.803,150.803,59.564,59.564) Sakha |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility |
spellingShingle |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Thonicke, Kirsten Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
topic_facet |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility |
description |
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Thonicke, Kirsten |
author_facet |
Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Thonicke, Kirsten |
author_sort |
Gädeke, Anne |
title |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_short |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_full |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_sort |
climate change reduces winter overland travel across the pan-arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(150.803,150.803,59.564,59.564) |
geographic |
Arctic Magadan Sakha |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Magadan Sakha |
genre |
Arctic Arkhangelsk Chukotka Climate change Global warming Ice khanty nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arkhangelsk Chukotka Climate change Global warming Ice khanty nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, 16 (2) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000616991000001 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/47129510.3929/ethz-b-00047129510.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 |
_version_ |
1774714127882649600 |