Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, a...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/409092 2023-08-20T04:04:12+02:00 Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P.O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Tian, Hanqin 2020-04 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/409092 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000409092 en eng IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000521459800001 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/409092 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000409092 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Environmental Research Letters, 15 (4) biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2020 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/40909210.3929/ethz-b-00040909210.1088/1748-9326/ab702b 2023-07-30T23:51:56Z Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra ETH Zürich Research Collection Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
topic |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts |
spellingShingle |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P.O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Tian, Hanqin Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
topic_facet |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts |
description |
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P.O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Tian, Hanqin |
author_facet |
Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P.O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim id_orcid:0 000-0002-5183-6145 Tian, Hanqin |
author_sort |
Ito, Akihiko |
title |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_short |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_fullStr |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_sort |
pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/409092 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000409092 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, 15 (4) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000521459800001 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/409092 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000409092 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/40909210.3929/ethz-b-00040909210.1088/1748-9326/ab702b |
_version_ |
1774714603098341376 |