GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections
Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Repres...
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International Glaciological Society
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/348058 2023-05-15T14:02:01+02:00 GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimée A. 2019-06 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/348058 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000348058 en eng International Glaciological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2019.22 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000470734900008 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/348058 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000348058 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International CC-BY Journal of Glaciology, 65 (251) glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2019 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/348058 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000348058 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 2022-04-25T13:49:56Z Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs. ISSN:0022-1430 ISSN:1727-5652 Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Journal of Glaciology ETH Zürich Research Collection Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
topic |
glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers |
spellingShingle |
glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimée A. GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
topic_facet |
glacier modeling glacier mass balance ice and climate mountain glaciers |
description |
Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs. ISSN:0022-1430 ISSN:1727-5652 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimée A. |
author_facet |
Hock, Regine Bliss, Andrew Marzeion, Ben Giesen, Rianne H. Hirabayashi, Yukiko Huss, Matthias Radic, Valentina Slangen, Aimée A. |
author_sort |
Hock, Regine |
title |
GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_short |
GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_full |
GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_fullStr |
GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
title_sort |
glaciermip-a model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections |
publisher |
International Glaciological Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/348058 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000348058 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, 65 (251) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2019.22 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000470734900008 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/348058 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000348058 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/348058 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000348058 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 |
_version_ |
1766272071963246592 |