No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI
Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future chan...
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European Geophysical Society
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/284330 2023-05-15T15:07:32+02:00 No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, Hideharu Bekki, Slimane Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Hardiman, Steven C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, Andrew Marchand, Marion Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke D. Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura Rozanov, Eugene Saint-Martin, David Scinocca, John Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Yamashita, Yousuke Yoshida, Kohei Zeng, Guang 2018-08-13 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/284330 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000284330 en eng European Geophysical Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000441403800005 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/284330 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000284330 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International CC-BY Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18 (15) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2018 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/284330 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000284330 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 2023-02-13T00:44:35Z Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic polar night ETH Zürich Research Collection Arctic |
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Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, Hideharu Bekki, Slimane Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Hardiman, Steven C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, Andrew Marchand, Marion Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke D. Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura Rozanov, Eugene Saint-Martin, David Scinocca, John Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Yamashita, Yousuke Yoshida, Kohei Zeng, Guang |
spellingShingle |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, Hideharu Bekki, Slimane Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Hardiman, Steven C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, Andrew Marchand, Marion Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke D. Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura Rozanov, Eugene Saint-Martin, David Scinocca, John Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Yamashita, Yousuke Yoshida, Kohei Zeng, Guang No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI |
author_facet |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, Hideharu Bekki, Slimane Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, Makoto Hardiman, Steven C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, Andrew Marchand, Marion Michou, Martine Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, Fiona M. Oman, Luke D. Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura Rozanov, Eugene Saint-Martin, David Scinocca, John Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane Yamashita, Yousuke Yoshida, Kohei Zeng, Guang |
author_sort |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca |
title |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_short |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_full |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_fullStr |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_full_unstemmed |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_sort |
no robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from ccmi |
publisher |
European Geophysical Society |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/284330 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000284330 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic polar night |
genre_facet |
Arctic polar night |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18 (15) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000441403800005 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/284330 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000284330 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/284330 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000284330 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 |
_version_ |
1766339017399336960 |