How important are future marine and shipping aerosol emissions in a warming Arctic summer and autumn?

• Main Authors: Gilgen, Anina, Huang, Wan Ting Katty, Ickes, Luisa, Neubauer, David, Lohmann, Ulrike
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus 2018
• Subjects: Arctic; Arctic Ocean; albedo; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/280192; https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000280192

Future sea ice retreat in the Arctic in summer and autumn is expected to affect both natural and anthropogenic aerosol emissions: sea ice acts as a barrier between the ocean and the atmosphere, and reducing it increases dimethyl sulfide and sea salt emissions. Additionally, a decrease in the area and thickness of sea ice could lead to enhanced Arctic ship traffic, for example due to shorter routes of cargo ships. Changes in the emissions of aerosol particles can then influence cloud properties, precipitation, surface albedo, and radiation. Next to changes in aerosol emissions, clouds will also be affected by increases in Arctic temperatures and humidities. In this study, we quantify how future aerosol radiative forcings and cloud radiative effects might change in the Arctic in late summer (July–August) and early autumn (September–October). Simulations were conducted for the years 2004 and 2050 with the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2. For 2050, simulations with and without additional ship emissions in the Arctic were carried out to quantify the impact of these emissions on the Arctic climate. In the future, sea salt as well as dimethyl sulfide emissions and burdens will increase in the Arctic. The increase in cloud condensation nuclei, which is due to changes in aerosol particles and meteorology, will enhance cloud droplet number concentrations over the Arctic Ocean (+10% in late summer and +29% in early autumn; in-cloud values averaged between 75 and 90°N). Furthermore, both liquid and total water path will increase (+10% and +8% in late summer; +34% and +26% in early autumn) since the specific humidity will be enhanced due to higher temperatures and the exposure of the ocean's surface. Changes in both aerosol radiative forcings and cloud radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere will not be dominated by the aerosol particles and clouds themselves but by the decrease in surface albedo (and by the increase in surface temperature for the longwave cloud radiative effect in early autumn). Mainly due ...