Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

• Main Authors: Mengel, Matthias, Nauels, Alexander, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature 2018
• Subjects: Climate-change impacts; Cryospheric science; Projection and prediction; Antarctic; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/245198; https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000245198

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. ISSN:2041-1723