A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence
Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/129180 2023-05-15T15:03:26+02:00 A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence Knutti, Reto Sedláček, Jan Sanderson, Benjamin M. Lorenz, Ruth Fischer, Erich M. Eyring, Veronika 2017-03-17 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/129180 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000129180 en eng American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2016GL072012 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000396411100036 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SBFI/H2020/641816 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/129180 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000129180 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/ In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (4) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2017 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/129180 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000129180 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012 2022-04-25T14:17:30Z Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly. ISSN:0094-8276 ISSN:1944-8007 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice ETH Zürich Research Collection Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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ETH Zürich Research Collection |
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ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly. ISSN:0094-8276 ISSN:1944-8007 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Knutti, Reto Sedláček, Jan Sanderson, Benjamin M. Lorenz, Ruth Fischer, Erich M. Eyring, Veronika |
spellingShingle |
Knutti, Reto Sedláček, Jan Sanderson, Benjamin M. Lorenz, Ruth Fischer, Erich M. Eyring, Veronika A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
author_facet |
Knutti, Reto Sedláček, Jan Sanderson, Benjamin M. Lorenz, Ruth Fischer, Erich M. Eyring, Veronika |
author_sort |
Knutti, Reto |
title |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_short |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_full |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_fullStr |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_full_unstemmed |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_sort |
climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/129180 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000129180 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (4) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2016GL072012 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000396411100036 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SBFI/H2020/641816 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/129180 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000129180 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/ In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/129180 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000129180 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012 |
_version_ |
1766335282283544576 |