Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem
Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of p...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/118663 2023-05-15T18:25:54+02:00 Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem Völker, Christoph Laufkötter, Charlotte Vogt, Meike Gruber, Nicolas Aumont, Olivier Bopp, Laurent Doney, Scott C. Dunne, John P. Hauck, Judith John, Jasmin G. Lima, Ivan D. Seferian, Roland 2016 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/118663 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000118663 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000381099900013 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/118663 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000118663 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported CC-BY Biogeosciences, 13 (13) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2016 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/118663 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000118663 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016 2022-06-26T23:36:44Z Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean ETH Zürich Research Collection Southern Ocean |
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Open Polar |
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ETH Zürich Research Collection |
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ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Völker, Christoph Laufkötter, Charlotte Vogt, Meike Gruber, Nicolas Aumont, Olivier Bopp, Laurent Doney, Scott C. Dunne, John P. Hauck, Judith John, Jasmin G. Lima, Ivan D. Seferian, Roland |
spellingShingle |
Völker, Christoph Laufkötter, Charlotte Vogt, Meike Gruber, Nicolas Aumont, Olivier Bopp, Laurent Doney, Scott C. Dunne, John P. Hauck, Judith John, Jasmin G. Lima, Ivan D. Seferian, Roland Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem |
author_facet |
Völker, Christoph Laufkötter, Charlotte Vogt, Meike Gruber, Nicolas Aumont, Olivier Bopp, Laurent Doney, Scott C. Dunne, John P. Hauck, Judith John, Jasmin G. Lima, Ivan D. Seferian, Roland |
author_sort |
Völker, Christoph |
title |
Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem |
title_short |
Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem |
title_full |
Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem |
title_fullStr |
Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem |
title_sort |
projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/118663 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000118663 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, 13 (13) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000381099900013 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/118663 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000118663 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/118663 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000118663 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016 |
_version_ |
1766207607261888512 |