Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison
In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We asse...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/116556 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116556 |
id |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/116556 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/116556 2023-05-15T13:06:32+02:00 Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison Huneeus, Nicolás Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanović, Goran Ničković, Slobodan Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas, Emilio Baldasano, José M. Pey, Jorge Rémy, Samuel Cvetkovic, B. 2016 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/116556 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116556 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000376937000014 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/116556 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000116556 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported CC-BY Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16 (8) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2016 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/116556 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116556 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 2023-02-13T00:45:46Z In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367 Article in Journal/Newspaper Aerosol Robotic Network ETH Zürich Research Collection |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huneeus, Nicolás Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanović, Goran Ničković, Slobodan Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas, Emilio Baldasano, José M. Pey, Jorge Rémy, Samuel Cvetkovic, B. |
spellingShingle |
Huneeus, Nicolás Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanović, Goran Ničković, Slobodan Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas, Emilio Baldasano, José M. Pey, Jorge Rémy, Samuel Cvetkovic, B. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison |
author_facet |
Huneeus, Nicolás Basart, Sara Fiedler, Stephanie Morcrette, Jean-Jacques Benedetti, Angela Mulcahy, Jane Terradellas, Enric Pérez García-Pando, Carlos Pejanović, Goran Ničković, Slobodan Arsenovic, Pavle Schulz, Michael Cuevas, Emilio Baldasano, José M. Pey, Jorge Rémy, Samuel Cvetkovic, B. |
author_sort |
Huneeus, Nicolás |
title |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison |
title_short |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison |
title_full |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison |
title_sort |
forecasting the northern african dust outbreak towards europe in april 2011: a model intercomparison |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/116556 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116556 |
genre |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
genre_facet |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16 (8) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000376937000014 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/116556 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000116556 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/116556 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116556 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016 |
_version_ |
1766009389847674880 |