Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE
The Caucasus region experiences recurrent droughts that affect natural vegetation and the agriculture-based economies of several countries. Because meteorological records are in general scarce and of short timespan, little is known about the magnitude and frequency of past climate variability. Despi...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/113220 2023-08-20T04:08:29+02:00 Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE Martin Benito, Dario Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Köse, Nesibe Güner, Hüseyin T. Pederson, Neil 2016-11 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/113220 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000113220 en eng Springer info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-016-3010-1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/329935 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/113220 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000113220 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/ In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted Climate Dynamics, 47 (9) Anatolia Black Sea Dendrochronology Drought EA/WR NCP NAO Precipitation info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2016 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/11322010.3929/ethz-b-00011322010.1007/s00382-016-3010-1 2023-07-30T23:55:42Z The Caucasus region experiences recurrent droughts that affect natural vegetation and the agriculture-based economies of several countries. Because meteorological records are in general scarce and of short timespan, little is known about the magnitude and frequency of past climate variability. Despite the recent increase of climate reconstructions for parts of Eurasia, no study has focused on past hydroclimate variability in the Caucasus. Here, we use a multispecies network of tree-ring width chronologies from the Lesser Caucasus to develop the first precipitation reconstruction for the region back to 1752 CE. Despite the high annual precipitation in the region, our reconstruction accounted for 51.2 % of the variability in May–June precipitation from 1930 to 2001. In comparison with reconstructions in the eastern Mediterranean, our new reconstruction revealed important and distinct drought periods and pluvials. Previous winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and spring East Atlantic/Western Russia (EA/WR) and North Sea Caspian patterns are likely key drivers of May–June precipitation in the Caucasus and Anatolia. NAO appeared to negatively affect rainfall low-frequency variability while effects of EA/WR were more apparent at the interannual timescales. We also show a potential positive effect of Black Sea surface temperatures on May–June precipitation. In the Caucasus, May–June represents the period of major water supply in semi-arid areas and the period with the highest potential of water scarcity in mesic areas. It is also a period of potential catastrophic flood events. Thus, changes to the precipitation regime during this season will be critical to both human and natural systems of the Caucasus region. ISSN:0930-7575 ISSN:1432-0894 Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation ETH Zürich Research Collection |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
topic |
Anatolia Black Sea Dendrochronology Drought EA/WR NCP NAO Precipitation |
spellingShingle |
Anatolia Black Sea Dendrochronology Drought EA/WR NCP NAO Precipitation Martin Benito, Dario Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Köse, Nesibe Güner, Hüseyin T. Pederson, Neil Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE |
topic_facet |
Anatolia Black Sea Dendrochronology Drought EA/WR NCP NAO Precipitation |
description |
The Caucasus region experiences recurrent droughts that affect natural vegetation and the agriculture-based economies of several countries. Because meteorological records are in general scarce and of short timespan, little is known about the magnitude and frequency of past climate variability. Despite the recent increase of climate reconstructions for parts of Eurasia, no study has focused on past hydroclimate variability in the Caucasus. Here, we use a multispecies network of tree-ring width chronologies from the Lesser Caucasus to develop the first precipitation reconstruction for the region back to 1752 CE. Despite the high annual precipitation in the region, our reconstruction accounted for 51.2 % of the variability in May–June precipitation from 1930 to 2001. In comparison with reconstructions in the eastern Mediterranean, our new reconstruction revealed important and distinct drought periods and pluvials. Previous winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and spring East Atlantic/Western Russia (EA/WR) and North Sea Caspian patterns are likely key drivers of May–June precipitation in the Caucasus and Anatolia. NAO appeared to negatively affect rainfall low-frequency variability while effects of EA/WR were more apparent at the interannual timescales. We also show a potential positive effect of Black Sea surface temperatures on May–June precipitation. In the Caucasus, May–June represents the period of major water supply in semi-arid areas and the period with the highest potential of water scarcity in mesic areas. It is also a period of potential catastrophic flood events. Thus, changes to the precipitation regime during this season will be critical to both human and natural systems of the Caucasus region. ISSN:0930-7575 ISSN:1432-0894 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Martin Benito, Dario Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Köse, Nesibe Güner, Hüseyin T. Pederson, Neil |
author_facet |
Martin Benito, Dario Ummenhofer, Caroline C. Köse, Nesibe Güner, Hüseyin T. Pederson, Neil |
author_sort |
Martin Benito, Dario |
title |
Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE |
title_short |
Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE |
title_full |
Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE |
title_fullStr |
Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tree-ring reconstructed May–June precipitation in the Caucasus since 1752 CE |
title_sort |
tree-ring reconstructed may–june precipitation in the caucasus since 1752 ce |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/113220 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000113220 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Climate Dynamics, 47 (9) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-016-3010-1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/329935 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/113220 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000113220 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/ In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/11322010.3929/ethz-b-00011322010.1007/s00382-016-3010-1 |
_version_ |
1774720781087932416 |