Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns
We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic...
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ftethz:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/103465 2023-08-20T04:08:27+02:00 Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns Rautenhaus, Marc Grams, Christian M. Schäfler, Andreas Westermann, Rüdiger 2015 application/application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/103465 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000103465 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000358917100025 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/103465 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000103465 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (7) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2015 ftethz https://doi.org/20.500.11850/10346510.3929/ethz-b-00010346510.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015 2023-07-30T23:50:24Z We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off). ISSN:1991-9603 ISSN:1991-959X Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic ETH Zürich Research Collection |
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Open Polar |
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ETH Zürich Research Collection |
op_collection_id |
ftethz |
language |
English |
description |
We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off). ISSN:1991-9603 ISSN:1991-959X |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rautenhaus, Marc Grams, Christian M. Schäfler, Andreas Westermann, Rüdiger |
spellingShingle |
Rautenhaus, Marc Grams, Christian M. Schäfler, Andreas Westermann, Rüdiger Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns |
author_facet |
Rautenhaus, Marc Grams, Christian M. Schäfler, Andreas Westermann, Rüdiger |
author_sort |
Rautenhaus, Marc |
title |
Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns |
title_short |
Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns |
title_full |
Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns |
title_fullStr |
Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns |
title_sort |
three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - part 2: forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/103465 https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000103465 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (7) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000358917100025 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/103465 doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000103465 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11850/10346510.3929/ethz-b-00010346510.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015 |
_version_ |
1774720719057321984 |