Analysis of the physical processes governing the recent evolution of the Arctic sea ice
In the Arctic, the consequences of global warming are stronger than anywhere else on the planet : the increase in air temperature over the last two decades is more than twice the average increase, according to the latest IPCC report. The evolution of the ice pack is a prime example of these changes....
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Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
Language: | French |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://theses.hal.science/tel-03602983 https://theses.hal.science/tel-03602983/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-03602983/file/GANI_Sarah_2021.pdf |
Summary: | In the Arctic, the consequences of global warming are stronger than anywhere else on the planet : the increase in air temperature over the last two decades is more than twice the average increase, according to the latest IPCC report. The evolution of the ice pack is a prime example of these changes. We observe a significant decrease in sea ice cover, associated with a loss of volume in all seasons. The sea ice becomes younger, more breakable, and more mobile. These changes in sea ice have brought the Arctic into a new state where air/snow/ice/ocean interactions are altered and difficult to apprehend. More observations and efficient numerical models are required to better understand and predict these changes and to correctly simulate the interactions between sea ice and the other components that control the Arctic climate. In this climate change context, the objective of this thesis is to analyze observations mainly collected in winter by IAOOS -Ice Atmosphere Arctic Ocean Observing System- drifting buoys (equipped with SIMBAs -SAMS Ice Mass Balance for the Arctic-), to understand which processes determine the recent Arctic sea ice evolution. We confront these analyses with numerical simulations made from the one-dimensional ice and snow model LIM1D (Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model). En Arctique, les conséquences du réchauffement climatique sont plus fortes que partout ailleurs sur le globe : ainsi, l’augmentation de la température de l’air depuis deux décennies y est plus de deux fois plus élevée que l’augmentation moyenne, selon le dernier rapport du GIEC. La banquise témoigne de ces changements de façon privilégiée. On observe une diminution importante de la couverture de glace de mer, associée à une perte de volume entoute saison. La glace de mer devient plus jeune, fragile et mobile. Cette évolution de la banquise a fait entrer l’Arctique dans un nouvel état où les interactions air/neige/glace/océan sont modifiées et difficiles à appréhender. Mieux comprendre et prévoir ces changements nécessite des ... |
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