Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations
International audience Abstract We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970–2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03971666 https://hal.science/hal-03971666/document https://hal.science/hal-03971666/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
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Open Polar |
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École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL |
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ftepunivpsaclay |
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English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Borchert, Leonard Koul, V Menary, Matthew, B Befort, D Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, G Mignot, Juliette Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Abstract We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970–2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic—Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2–9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. |
author2 |
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) Universität Hamburg (UHH) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) University of Oxford Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) ANR-17-EQPX-0001,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Borchert, Leonard Koul, V Menary, Matthew, B Befort, D Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, G Mignot, Juliette |
author_facet |
Borchert, Leonard Koul, V Menary, Matthew, B Befort, D Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, G Mignot, Juliette |
author_sort |
Borchert, Leonard |
title |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_short |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_fullStr |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_sort |
skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern european summer temperature variations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03971666 https://hal.science/hal-03971666/document https://hal.science/hal-03971666/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03971666 Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (10), pp.104017. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 hal-03971666 https://hal.science/hal-03971666 https://hal.science/hal-03971666/document https://hal.science/hal-03971666/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 IRD: fdi:010082829 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104017 |
_version_ |
1799485087267422208 |
spelling |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-03971666v1 2024-05-19T07:45:08+00:00 Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations Borchert, Leonard Koul, V Menary, Matthew, B Befort, D Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, G Mignot, Juliette Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) Universität Hamburg (UHH) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) University of Oxford Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) ANR-17-EQPX-0001,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage(2017) 2021-09-23 https://hal.science/hal-03971666 https://hal.science/hal-03971666/document https://hal.science/hal-03971666/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 hal-03971666 https://hal.science/hal-03971666 https://hal.science/hal-03971666/document https://hal.science/hal-03971666/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 IRD: fdi:010082829 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03971666 Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (10), pp.104017. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftepunivpsaclay https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 2024-04-25T00:35:14Z International audience Abstract We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970–2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic—Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2–9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL Environmental Research Letters 16 10 104017 |