Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
International audience The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models cont...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2022
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03608281 https://hal.science/hal-03608281/document https://hal.science/hal-03608281/file/s41467-022-28283-y.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y |
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École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL |
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ftepunivpsaclay |
language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
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[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, Guillaume Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, Xavier Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, Elisa Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, Pablo Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. |
author2 |
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Universitat de Barcelona (UB) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) Alfred Wegener Institute Potsdam Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Department of Earth System Science Irvine (ESS) University of California Irvine (UC Irvine) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Research Institute for Applied Mechanics Fukuoka (RIAM) Kyushu University College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS) University of Exeter Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Department of Atmospheric Science Fort Collins Colorado State University Fort Collins (CSU) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) European Project: 727862,APPLICATE |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, Guillaume Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, Xavier Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, Elisa Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, Pablo Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. |
author_facet |
Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, Guillaume Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, Xavier Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, Elisa Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, Pablo Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. |
author_sort |
Smith, D. |
title |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_short |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_sort |
robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future arctic sea ice loss |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03608281 https://hal.science/hal-03608281/document https://hal.science/hal-03608281/file/s41467-022-28283-y.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y |
genre |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.science/hal-03608281 Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1), pp.727. ⟨10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727862/EU/Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change/APPLICATE hal-03608281 https://hal.science/hal-03608281 https://hal.science/hal-03608281/document https://hal.science/hal-03608281/file/s41467-022-28283-y.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC8821642 WOS: 000752524300009 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1799471279962587136 |
spelling |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-03608281v1 2024-05-19T07:33:09+00:00 Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss Smith, D. Eade, R. Andrews, M. Ayres, H. Clark, A. Chripko, S. Deser, C. Dunstone, N. García-Serrano, Javier Gastineau, Guillaume Graff, L. Hardiman, S. He, B. Hermanson, L. Jung, T. Knight, J. Levine, Xavier Magnusdottir, G. Manzini, Elisa Matei, Daniela Mori, M. Msadek, Rym Ortega, Pablo Peings, Y. Scaife, A. Screen, J. Seabrook, M. Semmler, T. Sigmond, M. Streffing, J. Sun, L. Walsh, A. Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Universitat de Barcelona (UB) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) Alfred Wegener Institute Potsdam Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Department of Earth System Science Irvine (ESS) University of California Irvine (UC Irvine) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Research Institute for Applied Mechanics Fukuoka (RIAM) Kyushu University College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS) University of Exeter Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Department of Atmospheric Science Fort Collins Colorado State University Fort Collins (CSU) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) European Project: 727862,APPLICATE 2022-12 https://hal.science/hal-03608281 https://hal.science/hal-03608281/document https://hal.science/hal-03608281/file/s41467-022-28283-y.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727862/EU/Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change/APPLICATE hal-03608281 https://hal.science/hal-03608281 https://hal.science/hal-03608281/document https://hal.science/hal-03608281/file/s41467-022-28283-y.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC8821642 WOS: 000752524300009 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.science/hal-03608281 Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1), pp.727. ⟨10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftepunivpsaclay https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y 2024-04-25T00:38:44Z International audience The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL Nature Communications 13 1 |